In November, heavy trucks have already reached the 90,000 step, which is a long-lost sales. At the same time, the heavy-duty truck market also revived the hot scene of “grabbing cars and grab partsâ€.
Why is the recent heavy truck market so hot? Is this hot situation short-lived or will it continue?
Please look at the analysis from the reporter.
GB1589 huge new power <br> <br> the fourth quarter of 2016 caused by heavy truck sales rose there are several factors superposition, including the new GB1589 New Deal, freight prices (especially coal freight) and manufacturing pick up, etc. . Among them, the most influential one is the implementation of the new GB1589.
On September 21, 2016, the new GB1589 was formally put into operation. At the same time, many ministries and commissions jointly scrutinized the overloading. This policy not only reduced the total weight of the heavy trucks from 55 tons to 49 tons, but also made the 6*2 tractors. The total weight of trucks dropped to 46 tons. Overall, the 6*4 tractor capacity was reduced by 6 tons and the capacity was reduced by 11%. The 6*2 capacity was reduced by 9 tons and the capacity dropped by 16%. On an 8×4 truck, the capacity dropped by as much as 22.5%.
After the implementation of the New Deal in September, many users were in a wait-and-see attitude. Therefore, there was no significant increase in heavy truck sales during the month. In October, there was a gap in highway capacity, and the freight rates of roads in various regions generally rose by 10-30%. The increase in freight rates stimulated the demand for heavy trucks; on the other hand, for many transportation companies, the same weight of goods as before had required more vehicles. This also increases the demand for purchasing heavy trucks. The governance of the Super New Deal has led to a decline in the number of bicycles nationwide, which has attracted heavy truck users to change cars or purchase new vehicles to meet the gap in capacity requirements.
Therefore, since October, heavy trucks have become particularly tight, especially the 6*4 heavy trucks, and it has become a camphor.
In November, almost all heavy truck companies encountered capacity bottlenecks or bottlenecks in parts supply. For a time, the 457 lightweight single-stage bridge became a “stuck cargo†and it was robbed as if it were an engine in 2010.
It can be said that the new GB1589 is somewhat similar to the current weight-recovery policy. It was exactly the year that the nationwide implementation of toll-by-weight charges prevented the severe overloading of heavy trucks, thus stimulating the blowout of heavy truck sales. The new GB1589 also increased the total demand for heavy trucks in the entire economic society.
<br> <br> coal prices rose this year, commodities, particularly coal prices continue to rise, to November 10, the price of coal has risen to 780 yuan / ton, compared to the beginning of the price of 360 yuan / ton It almost doubled.
Under the conditions of market economy, users “buy up and not buyâ€; at the time of rising coal prices, downstream power plants fear that they can't buy coal, frenzied purchases, and active shipments, leading to a boom in coal sales and transportation. Downstream panic buying and market speculation also contributed to the continued rise in coal prices. In addition, many reports said that this winter will be the "coldest winter" in recent years, so all regions are also actively storing coal resources, also pulling coal transportation.
Coal truck
It should be said that since the end of last year, the sales of coal trucks have continued to rise. This year, all heavy truck companies that sell coal trucks have good sales.
In addition, the "Double 11" sales reached new heights, which also promoted the sales of Express Express vehicles in October and November. In general, both coal trucks and express delivery vehicles are tractors. This year, the number of tractors increased by 36% year-on-year, making it the fastest growing model among heavy truck subdivisions.
However, with the gradual fall in the supply and demand balance of coal and the gradual fall in coal prices, the growth in sales of heavy trucks driven by coal trucks lacks stamina.
Manufacturing rebound <br> <br> since September this year, the manufacturing sector began to pick up, some factories have felt the pressure of employment.
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In November, China's official PMI (Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index) was 51.7%, up 0.5% from the previous month, and was above the Ronghe Line for four consecutive months, the highest point in two years. In addition, Caixin and Markit jointly announced that China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November was 50.9%, the second highest in two years.
In recent months, the profits of industrial enterprises have increased rapidly, the prices of industrial products have rebounded, and the state of the manufacturing industry has improved. The manufacturing PMI has gradually picked up. The official PMI index shows that the manufacturing economy has been improving every month for the past three months. This round of growth has been the longest since the end of 2014.
In November, the PMI in the construction industry was retreated to 60.4%. Manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI continue to rise. Among them, the production index rose by 0.6 percentage point to 53.9%, the highest since July 2014. This indicates that the manufacturing sector is in a better expansion range and is the highest of the five major sub-indicators.
At the same time, the effects of various policies have been and will continue to be released. Infrastructure investment projects will be implemented faster, driving demand and manufacturing production. In November, the average daily coal consumption of the 6 largest power generation groups was approximately 585,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from October, which was an increase of 42,000 tons from the average daily coal consumption in November last year. This also means an increase in the consumption of productive energy. Industry production is accelerating.
In addition, the new orders index in November increased by 0.4 percentage points to 53.2%, also the highest point since July 2014. Steady growth policies drove the market demand to pick up. In the first 10 months of the year, the country’s railway fixed asset investment increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and water conservancy construction investment increased by 16% year-on-year. In addition, the export orders index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 50.3%, returning to the expansion zone.
The purchase price index of raw materials has risen sharply, and is the only one of the sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI, which is higher than 60%. The increase in purchasing prices has also stimulated the acceleration of manufacturing production.
As PMI is a leading indicator of the economy, it can be seen from the PMI index that there is a clear sign of a pick-up in economic stability and that the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter may be higher than 6.7%. Heavy trucks are closely related to the entire macro economy and manufacturing industry. Therefore, the rising order index, the expansion of the manufacturing industry, and the increase in the economic growth rate all mean that demand for heavy trucks will increase in the future.
The economy may enter the inflationary period <br> <br> If we say, just to pick up in manufacturing in recent months to do, so, then further look at some of the next year, demand for heavy trucks this year, but also to maintain the temperature of it?
The answer may be yes. This is because if the Chinese economy enters inflation from the previous deflation, then it is good for heavy trucks.
From January to October 2016, the national consumer price level rose by 2.0% from the same period of last year, and November's CPI rose by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly up from October. From December this year to early next year, CPI may continue to climb.
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The main reasons are as follows: First, the rise in industrial producer price (PPI) is higher than expected, which has continued to reduce the profits of mid-and-downstream companies for a year, but has not been transmitted to consumer prices. Next year, it may have a pull-up effect on CPI; second, the RMB has been devaluing. It will be transmitted to the CPI through the rise in the price of imported goods; Third, the liquidity is sufficient to make speculative demand drastically increase the price of certain commodities.
In fact, when the PPI changes from negative to positive, it means that China has already emerged from deflation. Mild inflation is conducive to increasing investment and consumption instead of saving, which is itself a means of economic expansion.
Furthermore, once the US $1 trillion economic stimulus plan of the new US President Trump is true, it is obviously good for exports, and the devaluation of the RMB itself is beneficial to China's merchandise exports.
Another point is that the two-child policy that China began to implement in 2016 has stimulated consumption and real estate more favourably. In the future, this policy will continue to have a positive effect on the economy.
However, it must be emphasized that considering that China already has a high level of debt risk, the devaluation of the renminbi has not ended, foreign exchange reserves have continued to decrease, and pressure on the US dollar interest rate hike persists. If inflation is no longer “moderate†once China is in place, Then the Chinese economy may be as big as other emerging countries.
If the Chinese economy enters the Great Depression, the entire economy will fall into a cliff-like pattern, which will obviously be a big disaster for the heavy truck industry. As any heavy truck company, on the one hand, it should actively prepare for the prosperity of the heavy truck market with a high probability; at the same time, it should also provide its own “insuranceâ€, that is, if the worst happens, the company can also response.
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