“The challenge of restricting the development of LNG vehicles comes from the supply of gas sources, prices, filling stations, equipment technology and other alternative energy sources, but the price is the first.†Yao Ming, former director of the Ministry of Transport and former chairman of the China Road Transport Association German said on June 19th at the "3rd China International LNG Conference". He pointed out that the issue of the price of natural gas for vehicles has become the most critical factor affecting the popularization and application of natural gas vehicles. If the price of natural gas for vehicles rises to 75% of the fuel price, in addition to taxis, the promotion and application of natural gas vehicles will lose economic momentum. Slow down or even stagnate.
The price is vitality
A person in charge of Shaanxi Auto once told a reporter of the China Securities Journal that, for example, a hybrid vehicle with an average diesel substitution rate of 70% was developed under the premise of diesel price of 7.5 yuan/liter and LNG price of 4.5 yuan/party. A car can save fuel costs 74.5 yuan per 100 kilometers. Calculating the annual mileage of 100,000 kilometers, the annual fuel savings will be 74,500 yuan. The cost of reconstructing a heavy truck is generally between 6 and 80,000 yuan. After one year, the cost of rebuilding can be basically recovered.
However, this economy depends on the premise that the ratio of gas and fuel prices is less than 60%. Yao Mingde pointed out that according to the current engine technology level, it takes 1-1.05 cubic meters of natural gas to replace 1 liter of gasoline and 1.15 to 1.3 cubic meters of natural gas to replace 1 liter of diesel. Based on this calculation, if the price ratio between the two increases to 75% or more, the promotion and application of LNG vehicles will be slowed down or even stagnated due to the loss of economic incentives.
“Although recent natural gas price adjustments and reforms have not had a significant impact on the price of natural gas for vehicles, the natural gas price for vehicles in most regions is still 60% of the fuel price. However, due to the higher import LNG prices after 2010, domestic Many local natural gas prices and price reforms are not yet clear, which has caused companies and relevant competent authorities to raise concerns about the increase in natural gas prices for vehicles, and has affected the promotion and application of natural gas vehicles, Yao Mingde pointed out.
However, there are also some participants believe that such "fear" will not be implemented in the short term. “The low price of natural gas mainly means that the price of civil gas is low and the price of gas for vehicles is not low. The price increase should mainly be civil gas, and the use of vehicle gas should not increase for the time being. Otherwise, it would be unprofitable to develop natural gas vehicles. "An industry insider told the China Securities News reporter.
Industry chain is basically mature
Despite the potential threat of rising costs and the constraints of backward gas station facilities and imperfect vehicle technologies, the development speed and enthusiasm of natural gas vehicles, especially LNG vehicles, have continued unabated in recent years.
China Road Transport Association predicts that China's natural gas vehicles will reach 1 million in 2015, accounting for 5.7% of the total road transport vehicles. Among them, the number of highway passenger cars, trucks and buses was about 96,000, 138,000 and 167,000, respectively, accounting for 40.1% of the total.
“At present, there is no authoritative statistical data on LNG vehicles. According to statistical analysis by vehicle equipment manufacturers and pilot units, in 2011, there were approximately 60,000 operational LNG vehicles in China, of which approximately 20,000 were road buses and approximately 35,000 were trucks. There are about 6,000 buses.†Yao Mingde pointed out that, from a geographical point of view, the application of LNG vehicles in China currently focuses on areas where LNG gas sources are relatively abundant, such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hainan; According to the industry, it mainly concentrates on long-distance passenger transportation and freight vehicles, and the growth rate of buses is also faster.
At the same time, China's LNG production, storage and transportation, utilization, and LNG vehicle R&D and manufacturing technologies have also matured, forming an industrial chain that basically meets application needs.
“For example, LNG engines produced by manufacturers such as Weichai and Yuchai , LNG buses produced by “Sanlong Santongyiâ€, etc., LNG trucks produced by Shaanxi Auto, CNHTC, FAW, Hualing, and joint trucks, etc. The cylinders and refueling station equipment produced by Enrico, Furui equipment, and Chatter can basically meet the needs of the market,†said Yao Mingde.
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