In recent days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have continued to fluctuate. The cyclical industries represented by non-ferrous metals, electronics, chemicals, and coal have led the market to rise. In contrast, the mechanical equipment sector, which also has a strong cyclical property, has clearly underperformed the market. Analysts pointed out that the boom in the construction machinery industry is the main reason for the relative stagnation of the sector.
Mechanical equipment underperformed the broader market since February, the market showed a trend of entering the second one, gradually cutting into the technical pressure area above 2300 points. During this period of time, non-ferrous metals, coal, electronics and information equipment played a major role in leading the market.
In general, during the first half of February, the strong cyclical breeds were still active, and the weak cyclical varieties were relatively stagnant. However, with the rise of the broader market, some cyclical species also showed signs of fatigue, and the construction machinery sector is one of them. According to wind statistics, the construction machinery sector has fallen by 0.90% since February and underperformed the broader market by 2.39 percentage points. Major engineering machinery stocks such as Sany Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157) and Liugong (000528) both declined in February, with decreases of 3.10%, 0.22%, and 1.36%, respectively.
Analysts pointed out that there are two main reasons why the construction machinery sector underperformed the broader market in the short term: First, the cumulative increase in the sector in January caused a greater profit-taking of funds; second, from the fundamental point of view, the industry’s The degree of prosperity is not high, which limits the space for the rise of related stock prices.
From the perspective of valuation, the overall P/E ratio of the sector is currently not high at 10.78 times, which is one of the lowest valuations in the two cities. In the longitudinal direction, the current P/E ratio of this sector is the lowest level in the past 10 years, which is equivalent to that in the fourth quarter of 2008 when the Shanghai Composite Index fell to the trough. Market participants believe that the lower valuation of the overall market and the market's expectation of a slowdown in the medium and long-term growth of the construction machinery industry are the main reasons for the declining valuation of the sector.
The industry is not booming. For the prosperity of the construction machinery industry, most professional analysts are cautious, and there are two main reasons for the lack of industry outlook.
First of all, since 2011, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment has slowed down significantly, and there are fewer new large-scale projects. As a result, sales of construction machinery are not optimistic, and industry insiders expect this to continue. The data shows that the infrastructure investment in 2011 was 5.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year, and the growth rate dropped by 14.3 percentage points. From the situation in the first two months of this year, the situation of tight construction resources has not improved. According to a research report released by Industrial Securities (601377) a few days ago, the average daily delivery volume of an excavator dealer in Chongqing area after the Spring Festival was less than 20% of the same period of last year. In addition, a certain concrete machinery dealer is expected to construct projects in January-February. Demand dropped by about 60% from the same period last year.
Secondly, the current inventory situation of construction machinery is not optimistic. Manufacturers and distributors have not effectively destocked in the industry adjustment since last year, resulting in the current inventory level is still high. According to Guotai Junan Securities, the pressure on agents of domestic-funded brands is relatively high, while the inventory volume is small, which has reached the sales volume of 2 to 3 months in previous years, and most of them have reached sales of 4 to 5 months.
Construction machinery is currently facing a staged oversupply situation, leading to fierce competition for market share among different brands. At the same time, high inventory levels have also forced some companies to cut production. Some analysts believe that destocking is still the industry's biggest challenge.
Compared with the sluggish domestic market, exports are relatively optimistic. XGMA (600815) exports for the whole year of 2011 were close to US$90 million, an increase of over 80% over the same period last year. In recent days, Liugong and Sany have successively carried out international mergers and acquisitions. They have acquired the international counterparts of Poland's HSW and Germany's Putzmeister, and also showed that Chinese construction machinery giants have a strong desire to open up the international market. Analysts pointed out that under the background of the slowdown in the growth of domestic infrastructure construction and fixed asset investment, exports may become a new profit growth point for domestic construction machinery companies.
Mechanical equipment underperformed the broader market since February, the market showed a trend of entering the second one, gradually cutting into the technical pressure area above 2300 points. During this period of time, non-ferrous metals, coal, electronics and information equipment played a major role in leading the market.
In general, during the first half of February, the strong cyclical breeds were still active, and the weak cyclical varieties were relatively stagnant. However, with the rise of the broader market, some cyclical species also showed signs of fatigue, and the construction machinery sector is one of them. According to wind statistics, the construction machinery sector has fallen by 0.90% since February and underperformed the broader market by 2.39 percentage points. Major engineering machinery stocks such as Sany Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157) and Liugong (000528) both declined in February, with decreases of 3.10%, 0.22%, and 1.36%, respectively.
Analysts pointed out that there are two main reasons why the construction machinery sector underperformed the broader market in the short term: First, the cumulative increase in the sector in January caused a greater profit-taking of funds; second, from the fundamental point of view, the industry’s The degree of prosperity is not high, which limits the space for the rise of related stock prices.
From the perspective of valuation, the overall P/E ratio of the sector is currently not high at 10.78 times, which is one of the lowest valuations in the two cities. In the longitudinal direction, the current P/E ratio of this sector is the lowest level in the past 10 years, which is equivalent to that in the fourth quarter of 2008 when the Shanghai Composite Index fell to the trough. Market participants believe that the lower valuation of the overall market and the market's expectation of a slowdown in the medium and long-term growth of the construction machinery industry are the main reasons for the declining valuation of the sector.
The industry is not booming. For the prosperity of the construction machinery industry, most professional analysts are cautious, and there are two main reasons for the lack of industry outlook.
First of all, since 2011, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment has slowed down significantly, and there are fewer new large-scale projects. As a result, sales of construction machinery are not optimistic, and industry insiders expect this to continue. The data shows that the infrastructure investment in 2011 was 5.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year, and the growth rate dropped by 14.3 percentage points. From the situation in the first two months of this year, the situation of tight construction resources has not improved. According to a research report released by Industrial Securities (601377) a few days ago, the average daily delivery volume of an excavator dealer in Chongqing area after the Spring Festival was less than 20% of the same period of last year. In addition, a certain concrete machinery dealer is expected to construct projects in January-February. Demand dropped by about 60% from the same period last year.
Secondly, the current inventory situation of construction machinery is not optimistic. Manufacturers and distributors have not effectively destocked in the industry adjustment since last year, resulting in the current inventory level is still high. According to Guotai Junan Securities, the pressure on agents of domestic-funded brands is relatively high, while the inventory volume is small, which has reached the sales volume of 2 to 3 months in previous years, and most of them have reached sales of 4 to 5 months.
Construction machinery is currently facing a staged oversupply situation, leading to fierce competition for market share among different brands. At the same time, high inventory levels have also forced some companies to cut production. Some analysts believe that destocking is still the industry's biggest challenge.
Compared with the sluggish domestic market, exports are relatively optimistic. XGMA (600815) exports for the whole year of 2011 were close to US$90 million, an increase of over 80% over the same period last year. In recent days, Liugong and Sany have successively carried out international mergers and acquisitions. They have acquired the international counterparts of Poland's HSW and Germany's Putzmeister, and also showed that Chinese construction machinery giants have a strong desire to open up the international market. Analysts pointed out that under the background of the slowdown in the growth of domestic infrastructure construction and fixed asset investment, exports may become a new profit growth point for domestic construction machinery companies.
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