Chen Deming: Foreign trade companies should be alert to the impact of imported inflation

Yesterday morning, the symposium on the foreign trade situation of the Ministry of Commerce was held in the conference room of Pazhou Complex. Minister Chen Deming and Vice Minister Yi Xiaozhun of the Ministry of Commerce, as well as principals of commerce departments of provinces and cities in Xiamen, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, and Ningbo, and eight representatives of import and export companies attended the meeting. Guangdong Province attended the meeting with Liu Xiaojie, deputy secretary-general of the provincial government, and Zheng Jianrong, deputy director of the Guangdong Provincial Department of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation. The industries of the participating companies are mainly distributed in shipbuilding, green energy, household appliances, textiles, food, medicine, and footwear. Wait.

At almost every Canton Fair, Chen Deming will hold a seminar on foreign trade enterprises to study and analyze the foreign trade situation. However, this time the investigation was not so unusual.

Just a few days ago, Premier Wen Jiabao hosted a seminar on the economic situation in the five provinces of Liaoning, Zhejiang, Hubei, Guangdong, and Sichuan when he was researching in Wuhan, Hubei Province. One of the backgrounds of the intensive investigations by the central government is the forthcoming introduction of the national "Twelfth Five-Year Plan".

Next year is the beginning of the 12th Five-Year Plan. Countries around the world are now at an important turning point in responding to the international financial crisis. How to make the current policy and the new five-year plan converge is a problem that policy makers have to face. Therefore, the survey of the Canton Fair was given special attention.

It is less likely that the world economy will have a "double bottom"

Yesterday afternoon, Chen Deming accepted an interview with Nanfang Daily after patrolling the Canton Fair. Chen Deming said that from the perspective of the Canton Fair, the second phase is coming to an end. The current turnover has exceeded 25 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 11% from the previous year, but the number of merchants has decreased by about 3%, indicating that effective merchants are increasing. . The trading volume and order volume of exhibitors generally increased by more than 10%. However, considering the labor costs and exchange rate changes, trade is still cautious.

Chen Deming stressed: "This also shows that the world economy is recovering, and the possibility of the so-called 'double bottoming' is less likely, but the recovery is relatively slow. It may have a long, complicated and fragile process and is full of uncertainty. ."

It is worth noting that many key foreign trade provinces and cities all forecast that the growth of external demand will slow down significantly in the first half of 2011, and it will be difficult to reproduce the rapid growth trend of the year. Not only that, but trade protectionism will continue to increase and there will be new industries. And the trend of high-tech products spread.

The total import and export of Guangdong Province accounted for about one-fourth of the country's total. According to the latest questionnaire survey of 235 representative enterprises in the province by the Department of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation of Guangdong Province, 79.6% of companies stated that orders in hand in the fourth quarter were higher than the same period of last year. Have increased. Among them, companies with orders growing by more than 20% accounted for 41.3%, those with orders for growth of 10% - 20% accounted for 25.1%, and those with orders for orders under 10% growth accounted for 13.2%, with only 17% of corporate orders falling compared with the same period of last year.

However, Zheng Jianrong, deputy director of the Provincial Department of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, said that although the foreign economic and trade development environment has improved. However, in the coming period, the development of foreign trade and economic cooperation will also face many uncertainties and uncertainties. The situation is still not optimistic.

Shanghai Silk Group, one of the largest textile companies in China, also confirmed the generality of this situation. Xu Weimin, chairman of Shanghai Silk Group Co., Ltd., said that due to the recovery in international market demand, customers will increase their willingness to place orders. Some major customers have orders for 20%-30% growth, and prices have also risen. However, due to factors such as the RMB exchange rate, labor costs, and rising raw material prices, companies can only pass on cost pressures by enhancing their competitiveness.

The RMB exchange rate should maintain predictable stability

The issue of RMB exchange rate is a topic that foreign trade companies cannot bypass at present. Many key import and export provinces and cities rank the issue of RMB exchange rate as the top concern.

Recently, the continuous appreciation of the renminbi exchange rate has caused greater pressure on the export of foreign trade companies. At the same time, the instability and volatility risks of exchange rates have also increased the turbulence of business activities. According to calculations, as of October 22, the renminbi has appreciated by 2.5% against the US dollar, making the export profits of the originally meager Chinese companies further compressed.

Zhu Min, head of the Department of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation of Jiangsu Province, stated that according to its research, at the current session of the Canton Fair, some companies suffered losses in their orders, and companies generally reported that they did not dare to answer, short-listed, and small-sized ones into the mainstream. Some foreign buyers are also in a wait-and-see attitude, placing caution.

According to the summary of the financial data of 80 export enterprises (accounting for 35.6% of the city's total exports) that Xiamen Municipal Bureau of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation has focused on, this year, the sales revenue of Xiamen enterprises increased by 29% compared to the same period of last year, but the export gross profit rate was only 9.2%. The level is lower than 3.1 percentage points last year. Not only that, some industries are even on the verge of losses. For example, the export profit margin of agricultural products is only 1-2%, clothing is about 2%, electromechanical is about 3%, and light industrial products are slightly higher, about 5-6%.

Zheng Jianrong, deputy director of the Provincial Foreign Trade Department, also proposed to maintain the stability and continuity of the foreign economic and trade policies of the country. He said: "Especially the current pressure for appreciation of the renminbi is still huge, and it is difficult for companies to judge the future exchange rate changes, and there is also a lack of hedging mechanisms. The State is requested to maintain the relative stability of the renminbi exchange reform policy and guide enterprises in anticipating the renminbi exchange rate."

Xu Weimin said that 40% of the company’s products are exported to the United States, and the stability of the RMB exchange rate has had a significant impact on its quotations. However, he also pointed out that the small appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is acceptable, and the key is to be expected. “If you can maintain a predictable stability, I think it is acceptable to use 3 points or 5 points. After all, the survival of the fittest is the market criterion.”

Xu Weimin said that although China currently has the absolute advantages of technology and quality in the textile industry, it cannot be replaced by other countries for the time being. However, given the continuous increase in the cost of production in China, if the offer price rises by 20%, customers will certainly not be able to accept it.

Rising international commodity prices have become a new shock

This year, the rapid rise in raw material prices is also one of the factors that foreign trade companies cannot avoid.

According to a survey conducted by the Department of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation of Guangdong Province, due to labor shortages and the general increase in minimum wages in all cities in the province, the cost of labor for enterprises has generally risen by about 20% since the beginning of this year, and more than 60% of companies expect that their pay will continue to rise during the year; The cost has generally increased by about 10%, and the prices of major raw materials such as steel, copper, plastics, and cotton have increased by more than 20% year-on-year. In addition, the increase in the cost of electricity and the doubled cost of shipping have also increased the cost pressures of the company.

Take the example of the famous home appliance company Galanz. The raw material price has risen by 20% since the 3-4 quarter of last year. The labor wage has risen by 35%. The cost of shipping logistics has also increased. The person in charge of the company stated that together with the rapid appreciation of the renminbi, the company The sharp decline in profits can be described as "somewhat worse."

Guangdong is not a special case. According to a survey conducted by 113 key affiliates of the Ministry of Commerce in Jiangsu Province, raw material costs have increased rapidly and eroded corporate profits. Since this year, over 70% of the province’s enterprises’ operating costs have risen significantly. More than 60% of the enterprises’ labor costs have increased, and the average labor cost of enterprises has risen. More than 15%.

However, in an interview with reporters, Chen Deming pointed out that in addition to factors such as exchange rate fluctuations, rising costs of raw materials and labor, which are generally concerned by the market, China’s foreign trade still faces major difficulties such as the “out of control” of US currency issuance and the sharp rise in global commodity prices.

“According to the current situation, companies have made early considerations and preparations for factors such as exchange rate changes and rising labor costs,” said Chen Deming. “But because the dollar is out of control and international commodity prices continue to rise, it is bringing China Input inflation's 'impact', the uncertainty caused by this current problem is even more difficult for companies."

However, Chen Deming stressed that Chinese companies are also actively considering these factors. It is believed that China's exports will continue to grow steadily next year, and imports will also increase substantially.

Chen Deming also stated that during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, China's foreign trade development mode will focus on transformation in terms of structure, quality, technology, and standards. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce will also help foreign trade enterprises gradually enter the domestic market.

“I believe that after a few years, especially during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China’s foreign trade structure will be greatly changed and improved, and the domestic and foreign trade markets will be integrated. I believe that in the future China’s domestic market will obviously exceed Japan’s The second largest domestic market in the world, said Chen Deming.