I. Macroeconomic analysis: In 2015, the heavy-duty truck market will continue to be affected by the “structural slowdown†of the country’s macroeconomics, the continued slowdown in GDP growth, the continued decline in consumption in the national economy and the saturation of the domestic heavy-duty truck market. In the next five years, the heavy truck market will continue to develop at a steady low speed and enter the “micro-growth†period. In 2020, the heavy-duty truck market is expected to reach an annual output of 1 million units. The phase-out and renewal of yellow-standard vehicles will become a major highlight in 2015 and will have a positive effect on the segmented markets such as muck trucks and port tractors. In addition, changes in the way of logistics will determine the road vehicles are the protagonists of the market, especially the future market opportunities for efficient logistics tractors and trucks will be even greater.
On the positive side: The large number of railway, highway and infrastructure construction projects approved by the Development and Reform Commission at the end of 2014 provide certain guarantees for infrastructure investment and downstream heavy truck demand in 2015. For bad sectors, the continuous slowdown in the growth of key indicators such as GDP and investment slow down the downstream demand for heavy trucks. Still will not be prosperous. Among them, the GDP growth rate in 2015 will further drop to around 7%; while the fixed asset investment growth rate is expected to be around 17%, the first and second tier cities in the real estate industry will maintain the status quo, while the real estate industry in the third and fourth tier cities will be completely collapsed. This will also have a certain negative impact on engineering heavy trucks.
II. Market Analysis and Forecast: Under the influence of the macro market factors such as the relative sluggishness of the heavy truck market in 2014 and the expected slowdown in GDP growth in 2015, the continued changes in logistics and the arrival of the era of the information industry 4.0, through the transformation of logistics and transportation, and free trade. Regional development, western development, land and sea silk road construction, infrastructure investment, yellowing and greening, and regional integration, as well as continuous upgrading of emission standards, have brought new heights to such areas as port tractors and muck trucks.
It is expected that in 2015, good and bad policies and regulations will coexist. In particular, tens of thousands of State III vehicles will be digested at the beginning of 2015, which is also unfavorable for new car sales in 2015. This year's heavy truck sales have indeed overdrawn sales in the first quarter of 2015. It is expected that in 2015, the heavy truck market may have a decrease of about ten percentage points compared with 2014.
It is predicted that in 2015, in terms of market structure, the share of tractors may increase, the dump truck and agitator market will slow down due to the slowdown in fixed asset investment, real estate industry shock adjustments, and adjustments in the energy and mining industry bottoms, which may affect the year-on-year decline. The largest decline was in major categories, with sales of road vehicles and municipal vehicles increasing slightly year-on-year, while trucks may be flat. Among them, 4x2 models will maintain a certain growth, and compete with the mid- to high-end trucks for a cup; the 6×2 model market will decline, the demand for lightweight 6×4 high-end models will increase, and the demand for dump trucks and slag trucks will be stable. Pit dump trucks continued to slump; the proportion of 8×4 dump trucks will increase. The demand for 6x2 trucks and 8x4 mid-level agricultural and sideline products transport vehicles and logistics vehicles will increase. At the same time, natural gas heavy trucks are likely to increase substantially in 2015, and the demand for LNG models for road vehicles will further increase. Production and sales volume will reach 70,000-80,000 units.
III. Analysis of product development trends: The technological upgrading and the dramatic increase in logistics vehicles brought about by the implementation of State IV in 2014 have led to a shift in the demand for vehicles to large-horsepower, lightweight, intelligent, and integration of platform resources. In 2015, the vehicle demand structure will continue to adjust. From the trend of regional economic development in recent years, it can be found that the development of regional economy determines the heavy-duty truck layout. Extensive traditional manufacturing industries are attenuating from the developed coastal regions of the eastern coast and rapidly shifting to the central and western regions. They are entering a fundamental structure of markets and products. During this period of change, this process will have an impact on the market area of ​​heavy trucks. The share of demand for high-end medium- and heavy-duty trucks in the relatively economically developed eastern regions will continue to increase. Middle and low-end mid-to-high end products have a vast market in the middle and western regions.
At this stage, heavy truck products and market players have undergone major changes. Truck transporters are undergoing major transformations. The profit model will also undergo a fundamental shift. In the past, truck owners were able to earn money by overloading. In the future, overloading will be integrated. Replaced by transport efficiency. Low-quality technical grade products will become less and less suitable for road transport requirements. Long-distance, ultra-long distance, rapid transportation and distribution of goods put forward more requirements on the quality, reliability and durability of vehicles. This will make homogenized products gradually lose their competitiveness and the high-end market has begun to develop quickly. The growth, especially in the eastern region where the road network is developed and the economic aggregate is large, will be the first to form an order-of-magnitude market scale in the near future. These market demands will all have a major impact on the future trend of the heavy truck industry.
At present, the demand for heavy-duty, high-power and multi-axis markets is increasing. In addition, heavy-duty trucks have developed in the direction of multi-gear and high-torque with a small gap between gears. Transmissions with multiple gears and a wide range of speed ratios improve their power performance, fuel economy, and shift smoothness, improving vehicle fuel economy. With the improvement of road conditions and the development of the transportation industry, it has created favorable conditions for the high-speed road transport and containerization, and the market demand for multi-speed, high-speed transmissions will increase.
China's heavy truck production has achieved full integration with the world's advanced power technology through the introduction of world technology, international cooperation or domestic independent research and development, advanced technology, high comfort and high reliability of high-end heavy trucks. The gap between domestic heavy truck companies' technology and foreign countries is becoming smaller and smaller, and basic performances such as economy, energy conservation, environmental protection, reliability, comfort, and maneuverability are getting better and better, and they are continuously improving in terms of energy saving and light weight. It is not inferior to mooring. High-tech, high-value-added high-end heavy trucks will become the mainstream trend of truck development in China.
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