Last summer, the dual-fertilizer export brought the compound fertilizer market to the fire. At the same time, it also brought raw materials such as ammonium chloride and monoammonium phosphate to the raw material market. The raw material market has further promoted the rise of fertilizer prices. From June 1st this year, the export of binary fertilizer entered the low-tariff period. At the same time, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and other places began to grow corn. With a large amount of fertilizer, whether or not the compound fertilizer market can reproduce the flame market attracted people's attention.
However, the feedback from the market at the moment shows that the export of binary fertilizers this year is not too optimistic. Significant reductions have been recorded in the major export regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hubei compared with the same period of last year.
At present, the overall fertilizer market is stable and the factory price changes are not significant. 45% (15-15-15) chlorine-based compound fertilizer factory price in 2600 ~ 2700 yuan (ton price, the same below), 45% (15-15-15) sulfur base factory price in 2800 ~ 2950 yuan, 40% high The factory price of nitrogen fertilizer is from 2420 to 2500 yuan, and the factory price of 40% high nitrogen fertilizer produced by the high tower process is from 2,500 to 2,620 yuan.
The reporter was informed in the interview that the tariff for the off-season of Binn Fertilizer this year was only 4 months, which was a reduction of 8 months compared with last year's low-tariff period. In addition, international demand this year is not the same as last year. The main importing country, India, still had more surpluses of its binary fertilizer last year and resisted high prices. In addition, domestic raw material prices are high this year, while foreign investors have lower prices, and companies have little room for profit, and their export enthusiasm is not high.
The export of binary fertilizer is mainly composed of 48% and 36%, and the port prices are around 2,850 yuan and 2,200 yuan respectively. Some market participants estimate that this year's binary fertilizer exports are expected to be around 1 million tons, only 1/4 of last year.
Raw material support is also weakening. Recently, the price of urea has dropped significantly. At present, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong's leading market is reduced to 2,320-2,350 yuan, and it is generally above 2,450 yuan in early May. Judging from the medium and long-term trends, urea prices are expected to fall mainly. In addition, the price of ammonium chloride, which has been very strong in the previous period, is still untenable. Some manufacturers have already lowered their prices by 20-100 yuan, and the outlook may be even stronger. The phosphate fertilizer market is expected to be relatively stable. At present, the slightly stronger trend of raw materials is potash fertilizer. Sinochem announced that since May 30th, the sales price of potash has been increased by 20 to 50 yuan, and the increase of red-potassium has increased from 3,150 yuan to 3,200 yuan in the previous port quotation. 62 White potassium also rose to 3,200 yuan. In general, the prices of compound fertilizer raw materials are lower.
It is understood that the current compound fertilizer market has a considerable amount of reserves. After harvesting of winter wheat in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei, it is necessary to start planting corn with a large amount of fertilizer, mainly high-nitrogen compound fertilizers. In the early days when the price was low, the dealers had prepared a lot of high-nitrogen fertilizers, and some distributors had reached a total of 70 to 80 percent. When farmers really use fertilizer, many dealers are mainly to digest the inventory, supplemented by replenishment, and then the demand for goods from manufacturers is not very large.
At the same time, farmers’ acceptance of compound fertilizers is still low. Fertilizer prices rose by more than 20% this year, while food prices rose by less than 10%. The increase in fertilizer prices exceeded food prices. Farmers generally reflected that fertilizer prices were too high. This will also ultimately affect compound fertilizer prices.
However, due to the relatively large amount of fertilizer used in June, especially in Shandong, Henan and other places, there is a large amount of fertilizer used for planting corn, as well as mid-rice fertilizer in the southern region and top-dressing in the northeastern market, and the market demand is still considerable. . In addition, the raw materials purchased by high-priced fertilizer manufacturers are not digested, and although the price of urea has dropped to some extent, it is still at a high level. The support of raw material prices for compound fertilizer prices still exists. On the whole, although the compound fertilizer market is not optimistic, the price will not drop too much.
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