In China's auto market, which has entered a micro-growth environment as a whole, the commercial vehicle market can only be described as a downturn compared with the fairly good passenger car market in the consumer sector.
At the “2016 China Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Development Forum and the 2015 Annual Conference of the National Commercial Vehicle Parts Production and Marketing Association†recently held, what are the changes for commercial vehicle and component companies? As a central topic of the conference, several experts who attended the conference and published written reports expressed their opinions on this topic.
Drivers form a new format
Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Department of the State Information Center and senior economist Xu Changming, believes that the main reason for the rapid decline in the automobile market in the second and third quarter of 2015 is the deceleration of the economy's continuous trend.
Xu Changming said that the law is the long-term trend. According to the statistics of thousands of people in autos, when the level of economic development is low, the number of people in the population grows faster; when the economy develops to a certain level (for example, the per capita GDP reaches 15,000 USD), Thousands of people will basically stabilize (with the exception of the United States).
However, there are three factors that affect the speed of demand: First, the power of economic growth changes, driven by investment-driven transformation to consumption. According to the division of economic development stages, China entered industrialization in 2000, entered the middle period of industrialization in 2008, and entered the late industrialization period in 2014. Among them, the proportion of the first, second, and third industries in the national economy is constantly changing, and the proportion of the tertiary industry as a whole seems to improve. Judging from the overall commercial vehicle segmentation market, it basically meets the above rules. As China enters the late stage of industrialization, the growth rate of commercial vehicles will also decline significantly.
The second is the improvement of bicycle transportation efficiency. The transportation components of express delivery, express delivery, hazardous chemicals, fresh cold chain, daily industrial products and agricultural and sideline products are on the rise; and the transportation proportions of iron and steel, coal, port containers, gravel, cement (mixed trucks), etc. All are in decline.
Third, the rapid development of e-commerce requires new logistics formats. For example, the rapid development of e-commerce in the tertiary industry has brought blowouts in the express delivery industry and will continue to increase the demand for light passenger vehicles from urban light logistics.
Heavy truck is in the period of "repair, market adjustment" <br><br><br><br><br><br><br> Gong Yunan of marketing department of Shaanxi Automobile Sales Company gives his opinion: In 2015, it entered the third period of heavy truck development, characterized by shrinking demand, market Decline in adjustment.
Gong Yunan analyzed that taking a look at the trend of China's heavy truck market from 1994 to 2015, it can be concluded that the introduction of each major favorable macroeconomic policy or the introduction of favorable industrial policies is an opportunity for the heavy truck market to rapidly increase. According to the existing statistical data analysis, the trend of China's heavy truck market can be divided into four stages:
In the first stage, the development of heavy trucks was in its infancy (from 1994 to 1997). The main feature of this stage was that the heavy truck market was affected by factors such as demand orientation and product status. The market share was relatively small and the market was in a budding state. ;
In the second phase, the first phase of heavy truck development (1998-2005), the “double positive policy†of 1998, and the stimulation of highway investment brought about by the Asian financial turmoil, and the implementation of oversight policies at the same time, led to heavy tonnage and heavy horsepower heavy trucks. Gain opportunities for “first†rapid growth; third phase, third phase of heavy truck development (2006~2014), including “weight-based charging†policy, coupled with “overdraft†demand of “National III†emission implementation, global finance After the crisis, the “4 trillion high-speed rail and other infrastructure†implemented in China have achieved the “second†high-speed growth phase of the Chinese heavy truck market; the fourth phase, the third phase of the heavy truck development (2015~201x), and the demand is stable at this stage. Shrinkage, long-term “repair of demand, market adjustments,†is in urgent need of state investment or related industry policies.
Analysis <br> <br> 2015 for the heavy truck industry demand fell sharply structural market opportunities still exist, Gong Yunan said that according to Chinese heavy truck market, "periodic law of demand" judgment, leading to a significant decline in 2015, sales and marketing are all kinds of factors The combined results fall under the "cyclical demand for heavy trucks." Based on empirical data analysis of the update requirements of the heavy truck market, and based on the life cycle survey of heavy-duty truck end-user vehicle usage, it is known that the vehicle life cycle is generally 8 to 10 years. Although the state stipulates that 150,000 or 600,000 kilometers will be scrapped, the standard for scrapping is now lagging behind. Therefore, the actual data used in the study are mostly 8 to 10 years. From this analysis, it is known that 2005 was the “slump year†for heavy trucks, 2013 was the eighth year of the life cycle of heavy trucks, and 2015 was the tenth year of the life cycle of heavy trucks. Therefore, it is understandable that the heavy truck market decline in 2015 is defined as "periodic plunge."
Is it possible to turn salty fish over on the basis of a "plunge"? Wang Jianye, vice president of the China Commercial Vehicle Information Association, said that from the four perspectives of safety, environmental protection, energy conservation, and intelligence, commercial vehicle product technology still has a lot of room for improvement. There are many structural market opportunities. For example, automotive safety standards will be more stringent, mainly reflected in the automotive passive safety, such as EBS, ESP and other electrical and electronic products, disc brakes, airbags, etc., will become the focus of attention; in terms of automotive intelligence, electronic and electrical is the car The core of intelligence, vehicle remote management system, automatic transmission, intelligent proximity system AEBS, entertainment information system, etc. can bring safety, convenience and fun for driving.
As for the analysis of the next market trend, Xu Changming believes that light gasoline vehicles and heavy-duty diesel vehicles will implement the national five emission standards ahead of schedule in 2017, which is basically the same as the time for upgrading oil products. This will provide opportunities for the overall technological upgrading of the commercial vehicle industry. In addition, national standards on the external dimensions of semi-trailer tractors are expected to be officially introduced as early as the second half of this year. The main modification points include the relaxation of the external dimensions of semi-trailer tractors and the encouragement of new technologies. This will solve the problem of car trains. The contradiction between the continuous increase in transportation demand and the inability of existing regulations to meet the demand for transportation.
For the heavy truck industry alone, Gong Yunan estimated that the total demand during the “13th Five-Year Plan†period is expected to be 3.15 million. He analyzed that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the production capacity of the heavy truck market basically remained at the level of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. Due to the 4 trillion yuan of infrastructure construction, the heavy truck market needs 5-8 years to digest. Therefore, in the early period of the “13th Five-Year Planâ€, demand basically remained at the annual level of 550,000 vehicles. In the second half of 2017 or 2018, the heavy truck market is expected to resume, with an average demand of 630,000 vehicles.
Finally, the above several experts gave roughly the same market direction: During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, new demand for logistics vehicles will focus on high-quality energy-saving products and new energy, especially heavy trucks and intercity lines in electric vehicles. Short-distance transportation; due to the long-distance high-speed transportation demand, the power section of the traction vehicle will be upgraded into the 500-horsepower era.
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