In recent years, under the dual role of policy support and energy structure adjustment, China's new energy industry has set off a wave of development. After several years of rapid development, especially in the new economic normal, China's new energy industry has reached a historical turning point: on the one hand, under the pressure of air pollution and emission reduction targets, new energy has ushered in an unprecedented development opportunity; On the one hand, the future will gradually move toward substitution from the bench, and will face competition from other types of energy sources, and the market consumption pressure will become more severe.
In fact, in the "two sessions" of the country in recent years, the issue of new energy development has long been the focus of discussion. Safeguarding the new energy and power grid connection, promoting the construction of distributed power grid-connected standard system, speeding up the construction of grid-connected projects, and maintaining the safe and stable operation of the power system... Behind these "two sessions" hotspots is the concern for the increasingly prominent resource and environmental issues. And attention is a response to the urgent needs of the people for the sky, green, and water. In the attention and hot discussion of the "two sessions" on behalf of the committee members, the issue of accelerating the adjustment and transformation of the new energy industry has been broken, and the journey of new energy development based on the new economic normal has begun.
Environmental pressure brings unprecedented opportunities China's economic and social development has entered a new normal, and the energy industry has entered a new normal. At the same time, with the increasingly prominent energy and environmental issues, especially affected by global climate change, energy transformation has become a theme of China's energy development.
"At present, China is actively pursuing the goal of 50% non-fossil energy by 2020. At the same time, it has proposed that by 2030, carbon dioxide emissions will peak and non-fossil energy consumption will reach 20%. This is renewable. According to Shi Lishan, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, according to preliminary analysis, in the case of accelerating hydropower development and vigorously developing nuclear energy, China will need wind power by 2030. The installed capacity and solar installed capacity will reach 400 million kilowatts respectively to achieve this goal. "This estimate is still conservative. The energy structure transformation should be further accelerated. I think the potential of new energy development is unlimited." At present, the target tasks of new energy development have been basically clear, and the industry will maintain rapid growth momentum for a long time. . It is reported that by 2020, China's wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 200 million kilowatts and 100 million kilowatts respectively. This means that in the next five years, wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by about 110 million and 70 million kilowatts respectively, and the new energy industry has huge market space.
"In the face of various difficulties and challenges, we should also see that under the new economic normal, China's energy development model should shift from incremental capacity expansion to adjustment of stocks and optimization." Huadian Fuxin Energy Founder and party secretary of the company, Zheng Zheng believes that in the future, the new energy industry will be more prominent in terms of low carbon, clean, efficient and renewable, and the new energy industry will have much to offer.
Competition with the traditional energy market is becoming increasingly fierce. At present, the growth rate of China's power demand is declining. The growth rate of power supply has been significantly higher than that of the whole society. The power industry is in a situation of oversupply. In the future, clean energy such as wind power will gradually move from substitute to replacement, not only to maintain the rigid requirements of development, but also to face competition from other types of power sources, and the pressure on market consumption will increase.
At the same time, in recent years, the problem of overcapacity and the difficulty of grid-connecting with the new energy boom has already appeared. Although the national policy dividends are constantly tilting toward renewable energy, the problem of abandoning wind and abandoning light in the “Three North†region has still not been completely resolved. "It shows that the development of new energy to a certain stage will inevitably face the game and interest adjustment with fossil energy. This is the pain that must be experienced in economic and social development." Shi Lishan pointed out.
We should also see that after the new energy enters the stage of comprehensive scale development, the current power operation management system based on the traditional fossil energy and planning model is not compatible with the large-scale development of new energy. The emergence of problems such as abandoning wind and abandoning light is a typical manifestation of the current institutional mechanism not adapting to development.
The industry is also rethinking that the most fundamental problem in the domestic new energy industry is still in itself. "In the initial development of the new energy industry, it is easy to cross the upper limit and enter the track of rapid development when the external conditions are very good." According to Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, the root cause of blind expansion and overcapacity has already been buried. under.
In the case that new energy “promotes application and expands domestic demand†has no objection, “choosing what kind of application method†will become the focus of further attention of the “two sessions†representatives. We also look forward to how to combine the power system reform process in the future, accelerate the establishment of a power operation management system that adapts to the large-scale development of volatility power supply, and how to explore the formation of a new energy development business model that is in line with the market so that it can ultimately rely on support. The "two sessions" representative committee can give some thoughts and suggestions on issues such as competition with traditional energy parity.
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