On December 12, 2014, domestic refined oil products may usher in a new round of adjustment window, and the domestic oil price has “ declined ten times †to a foregone conclusion, and the reduction range has been the largest since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism in April 2013. Affected by this, the atmosphere of buying and selling in the domestic market fell to freezing point, and the wholesale price of “two barrels of oil†also fell to a four-year low.
The price of oil may usher in a ten-day losing streak
The international oil price “bear market†continued to be affected by negative factors such as the lack of a production reduction agreement at the OPEC meeting and Saudi Arabia’s announcement that the official oil price should be lowered to ensure market share. At the close of trading on December 5, New York crude oil futures fell $0.97, or 1.45%, to $65.84 a barrel, the lowest settlement price since July 29, 2009. During the same period, London Brent crude oil futures prices settled at a new low for five years in January and fell below the important threshold of US$70 per barrel.
As a result of this drag, the rate of change of crude oil referenced by domestic oil price adjustments also fell deeper within the negative range. As of the fifth working day of the 43rd valuation period after the implementation of the new mechanism on December 5, Zhongyu crude oil was valued at US$69.746/barrel, which was US$6.484/barrel lower than the benchmark, and the crude oil change rate was -8.51%, corresponding to the reduction in refined oil products. It is 360 yuan/ton. The change rate of Zhuochuang Information Monitoring was -9.46%, corresponding to a downward adjustment of RMB 450/t.
“The global economic recovery is slow and uneven, and energy demand and demand outlook are not satisfactory. The oversupply will continue to be a bearish oil market for some time to come. International oil prices may still be under shock,†analysts believe, December 12. The final cut in the retail price limit for refined oil products will eventually be widened to about 410 yuan/ton, or the largest increase since the innovation mechanism.
Analysts also believe that, considering the exchange rate and taking into account the interests of domestic production companies, the NDRC may moderately reduce the rate of reduction, but this round of oil price decline may still refresh the biggest record since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism in April 2013.
"The ten consecutive losing streak" is expected to get stronger, making the domestic market a serious pessimism, in the buying and not buying down the attitude of inhibition, the industry maintained low inventory operations, dare not rush to purchase. In addition, China has encountered the strongest cold air since the beginning of this year's winter, and the demand for gasoline and diesel in the northern region has decreased significantly.
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