In the future market, there are three main factors affecting the market trend of compound fertilizers:
The first is the change in raw material prices. Compound fertilizer consists of NPK combined with single element fertilizer, and its main production cost comes from single element raw material costs. Judging from the current terminal materials, the tight coal power situation will have to wait until at least the middle and early February of next year to be eased. No matter how the tariffs are adjusted, the high cost situation will not be relieved at once from the cost of the company. This will also support Compound fertilizer prices are high, even if they fall, the decline is not great.
The second is the light storage situation. Judging from the current situation, the situation of light-storage of compound fertilizer is still relatively good, at least better than the situation of light urea storage. Many dealers believe that the risk of light storage of compound fertilizer is smaller than that of urea. This is related to the policy of some compound fertilizer manufacturers to issue interest-bearing guarantees, and urea is not used for interest-bearing protection. The dealers bought the product. Buy, one-time buyout, the risk is entirely borne by the dealer. However, the price of compound fertilizer has risen to the current price, and the willingness of dealers to purchase less material has also declined.
Third, the trend of tariff policies. Now the market is generally waiting for the introduction of new tariffs. It is reported that there will be two changes in the new tariff policy: First, the benchmark price should be lowered. The current benchmark tariffs for urea, monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate are 2,300 yuan (ton price, the same below), 3,700 yuan, and 4,000 yuan. This benchmark price was established in November 2008 and was in the world at the time. In the latter part of the financial crisis, the entire fertilizer price did not fall into place, which was obviously high. In the two years of chemical fertilizer exports, it did not play a role in regulating exports, and it needed to be adjusted downwards. The second is to increase the fertilizer period. The time and interval for implementing tariffs for fertilizers during peak seasons should be adjusted appropriately. At this time, only two seasons, namely the season of low season for fertilizer use, the period for fertilizer preparation and the season of using fertilizer, should be adjusted to increase the period for fertilizer preparation. In the off-season, the implementation of low-tariff rates, and in the spring cultivation and fertilization season and the use of high tariff rates are implemented in order to better ensure the domestic fertilizer needs.
It can be foreseen that if there are no major changes in the prices of raw materials and light reserves, if the new tariff policy is introduced in time, the market will enter a new operating track; if not, the market will basically maintain the current wait and see. situation.
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