2012 is a difficult and important year for the development of China's energy-saving and new energy automotive industry. Under the guidance of the large-scale demonstration work organized by the state, various types of electric-driven vehicles have entered the practical application from the R&D status. At the same time, initial results have also revealed many problems.
I remember that when the statistics of 25 model cities across the country were released in 2011, there was a wide gap between them and the expected goals. Social media generally disseminated disappointment and criticism. Few models are available for demonstration, causing suspicion of product development results; battery factory large-scale investment, but orders have not come; 5.26 Shenzhen e6 electric car collision accident has amplified all suspicions to the extreme; private purchase of electric The start of the car is difficult and the demonstration city is almost helpless.
Difficulties and setbacks have not changed the determination of the government and the industrial sector to develop new energy vehicles. At the same time, they have made people think more calmly about the development of new energy vehicles. The work is more pragmatic. Thanks to the efforts of all parties, much welcome progress was made in 2012. The demonstration work steadily progressed. According to statistics, by August 2012, the total number of demonstration vehicles invested has approached 30,000; of these, hybrid buses have taken the lead, not only in quantities, but in excess of 10,000, and most of the fuel-efficient results are obvious, the cost continues to decrease; the most difficult The demonstration of electric passenger vehicles has also made breakthroughs, and the total volume is expected to exceed 10,000; the development of plug-in deep hybrid passenger vehicles at several key automakers has achieved very good results, and it is expected to be put on the market in the next year; The powerful power battery, motor, electronic control and electric component companies stand out from the competition. The power battery industry clusters in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin, and Central China have seen initial signs; the level of R&D and industrialization of power batteries has progressed. Fast and safe use of lithium iron phosphate batteries has become the main force of power batteries at this stage. Based on the improvement of safety technology, batteries with higher energy density such as ternary materials are expected to be used soon; important cities in Shanghai and Beijing are encouraging There has been a breakthrough in policy, which has created a good environment for the next step of promotion.
However, it is still necessary to fully understand how difficult it is for new energy vehicles to get through the difficult lead-in period. It is necessary to adopt a more realistic approach and through concerted efforts of all parties, to move forward step by step, and it is necessary to persist and be patient.
Looking forward to 2013, I have the following ideas for the discussion of the development of electric vehicles in China.
First of all, hybrid buses are the most promising products for marketization in the near future. The current medium-duty hybrid passenger car should further improve its cost-effectiveness. I have made calculations with some companies. If we can achieve the following goals: the fuel saving rate should not be lower than 25%, and the increase in the cost should not exceed 150,000 yuan, we can completely eliminate the need for government subsidies. Accepted for the market. The government has decided to expand the hybrid buses to other cities in the country in 2013, which provides a good opportunity for expanding production and reducing costs. In the midst of the steady promotion of medium-sized hybrid technologies, deep hybrid passenger car technology should be encouraged to achieve the goal of achieving a fuel saving rate of over 40%. I have recently learned that several hybrid systems R&D institutions are experimenting with their new products and have initially shown good results.
Second, explore the application of pure electric commercial vehicles in various fields. The demonstration of pure electric buses has already reached a considerable scale. So far, basically safe operation has been achieved. The outstanding problem is that the overall cost remains high. According to my understanding, it is 3-5 times higher than that of ordinary buses. The current task is not to rush to scale up, but to focus on sustainable development programs that seek to reduce costs; the use of pure electric taxis also has similar problems. It should be concluded that studies are in which areas are more suitable for pure electric taxis. Popularization and application; Urban use of small and medium-sized short-range pure electric commercial vehicles, such as logistics, postal services, and sanitation vehicles, may become suitable areas for the application of pure electric vehicles, but vehicles that require high power, large loads, and long-duration vehicles are not suitable. To do a specific technical and economic analysis; for all kinds of electric vehicles must always be placed first in safety.
Again, the pure electric passenger car is the main vehicle to achieve the strategic goals of new energy vehicles. The shelled trip purchased by private parties has not yet been realized. It is very difficult. We must adopt various measures and require joint efforts from all sides. This should be the focus of work in 2013; product R&D is still the key, and we must actually subdivide it from battery technology. Market, research and development of competitive products, the current focus should be on short-range small and micro-vehicles; in order to achieve a shell trip, allowing consumers to gradually accept electric vehicles, should try to use a variety of promotional models, including vehicle sales, leasing, The company’s employees may purchase, etc.; they may consider selecting small and medium-sized cities and towns that are relatively affluent and environmentally friendly to carry out demonstrations of pure electric vehicles. The private vehicles in these cities have a short daily mileage, convenient parking, and easy installation of charging piles.
Fourth, attach great importance to the development of hybrid passenger cars. The start-stop technology has matured, and it can be used as a standard configuration of ordinary cars, including energy-saving vehicle technologies, and deep-seated hybrid technologies have been universally recognized and valued by the world’s automotive industry. It can not only achieve significant energy savings, but also It is also the basis for plug-in passenger cars to improve the power performance of automobiles, and we look forward to making progress in 2013.
Power batteries are the core of electric vehicles. Technological innovation is the centerpiece of the development of power batteries. To achieve a higher energy density battery technology, theoretically there is a great possibility, but it must be achieved through a series of scientific and technological innovations. From now on, we must start with an energy density of 300Wh. More than 5 kg/kg of battery R&D work, it is imperative to establish a national research system for the next generation of power batteries. To prevent the blind construction and investment of the power battery industry, it is necessary to focus on supporting excellent battery companies to strengthen their businesses, form a complete industrial chain, and foster competitive battery industry clusters; Support to help excellent battery companies overcome financial difficulties before mass production.
Finally, infrastructure construction should be guided by the “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Planningâ€. It is necessary to further clarify some principles and implementation rules for infrastructure construction. It is impossible for a large corporation to formulate guidelines for the infrastructure construction of national electric vehicles to prevent the formation of a monopoly situation; the mode of battery replacement may be applicable to a few special-purpose vehicles, but it is not appropriate. In most automobiles, it does not have universal significance; charging modes based on slow charging and supplemented by fast charging are beneficial to car batteries and power grids; research, planning, construction, and management of the construction of parking slow charging charging piles should be vigorously carried out. Service work; Do a good job in the construction and planning of the fast charging station, rational layout, and save the land, and gradually promote according to actual needs; Formulate a national unified electric vehicle tariff standards and billing methods, study the use of power grid operation and the use of renewable energy power generation way.
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