In 2013, China's auto production and sales hit a record high in global history, and for the first time in two years, it returned to double-digit growth. When asked about the Chinese auto market in 2014, what shocks and changes will occur? Let us count one by one!
Conjecture 1: Limiting the number of city lineups At the end of 2013, Tianjin officially restricted the use of cards, which has caused many families in other second-tier cities to speed up the purchase of cars. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that cities such as Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing, and Wuhan may implement automobile purchase restrictions and brand restriction measures within a few years. Local policies to curb car consumption, such as restrictions on purchases and restrictions, will gradually spread to more and more large and medium-sized cities, which will have an important impact on the domestic auto market. Auto makers may become the most affected by this policy.
Conjecture 2: The progress of the rights protection system forced the industry's "car three packs" policy to be introduced more than three months. However, in view of the auto market, there are still many problems for consumers such as “proving difficult cases, difficulty in appraisal, and difficult claimsâ€. Under the background of China’s rapid entry into the automotive society, with the extension of the market's adaptation period, through the establishment of regulations, regulations, legislation, and laws, the domestic automobile consumer rights protection mechanism will continue to progress and become a force to transform the automotive industry. And an important part of sustainable development.
Conjecture 3: The shrinkage of the official car market has given birth to the business of car rental companies. On November 25, 2013, the “Constitutional and Governmental Organizations Implemented the Conservation Against Waste†Ordinance was promulgated. The "Regulations" pointed out that the general official car will be cancelled, and necessary law enforcement duties, confidential communications, emergency and special technical vehicles, and other vehicles provided as required will be retained.
According to incomplete statistics, the current number of domestic official vehicles is about 2 million. Most of them are general official vehicles. 2014 as the first year of implementation of this policy. After the general official car is cancelled, the official car needs or will be provided by a social service, which in turn prompts a group of social car rental companies that serve the party and government agencies.
Conjecture 4: New Energy Vehicles Meet the Ice-Cleaning Period 2013 The fog has swept through the land of China. The competition between the two countries has reached the end of the year. How to manage the environment, and also a clean home for future generations? In 2013, Beijing implemented the Beijing Five Standard in advance and announced that the National Five Standard will be implemented nationwide in 2018. The predictable forecast is: In 2014, the pace of encouraging and promoting new energy vehicles will be further accelerated, from government policies to corporate R&D to consumer purchases.
In addition, in 2014, major auto makers will speed up the application of fuel-efficient technologies because the third phase of the “Passenger Fuel Consumption Limit†standard will be formally implemented in 2015.
Conjecture 5: The wave of e-commerce may sweep the auto industry in 2013 with a "double 11". The total record of three major e-commerce companies is 23.548 billion yuan, accounting for two-thirds of Tmall's total turnover. Including Shanghai GM, Changan, Geely and other car brands have settled in Tmall, and launched "Double 11" exclusive models and hot on the Internet. In 2014, will the e-commerce boom sweep the entire automotive industry?
Conjecture 6: The scale of the used car market will increase In 2013, the volume of used car trade in China will exceed 5 million vehicles for the first time. With the continuous increase in car ownership, the volume of used car sales will continue to increase.
Compared with foreign countries, the sales volume of domestic used cars and new cars is still far lower. Due to the implementation of some city car purchase restriction policies, many car owners have no choice but to sell their old cars for new car replacement, which will prompt the second-hand car trade to become more active. While second-hand car transactions are growing, the number of second-hand car brokerage firms is also rapidly increasing.
Conjecture 7: The gradual rise and fall of oil prices in line with international standards At the beginning of the 2014 New Year, domestic refined oil products ushered in the first downward adjustment. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice and decided to reduce the price of gasoline and diesel by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton, respectively, and measure the retail price of gasoline No. 90 and diesel No. 0 (average of the country) to decrease by 0.09 yuan and 0.1 yuan per liter respectively.
In the future, taking into account the changes in the oil prices in the international market, we will continue to actively and steadily push forward the reform of oil prices, rationalize the prices of refined products, and gradually achieve convergence with international oil prices. This will inevitably become a general trend.
I guess eight automobile market into the "slight increase" Time <br> <br> industry analysts predict that by 2014 China automobile production and sales growth will fall to less than 10% into the "slight increase" Time for the following reasons: First, 2013 The year-by-year sales volume of China's auto market exceeds 20 million units. It is very difficult to maintain a growth rate of more than 10%. Second, the impact of unfavorable factors such as traffic jams and restrictions on purchasing in major cities will also reduce the contribution of first and second-tier cities to the auto market. The increase of the auto market in 2014 will mainly depend on the third and fourth tier markets.
Guess Nine, the luxury car market, dropping the second and third tier cities <br> <br> With the slowdown in car, car restriction policies, stick to the luxury car brand in the first-tier cities at the same time, began to second and third tier market development. The purchase restriction policy makes it difficult to increase sales in first-tier cities. For car manufacturers, whoever seizes the secondary and tertiary markets will likely have more market share. More and more automakers have adjusted their brand strategy and accelerated the pace of marketing to the secondary and tertiary markets.
Guess ten: SUV and MPV market alive <br> <br> fastest growing car sales for all models, SUV production and sales in 2013 reached 3.0257 million and 2.9888 million, up 51.40% and 49.41% . From the sales growth rate of nearly 50%, we can also see that the SUV is still in a state of rapid development in the domestic auto market.
In recent years, the growth rate of the MPV market, which is detached from the edge of the automotive market, is also very rapid. The latest statistics show that in 2013, the production and sales of MPVs were 1,321,900 and 1,305,200, an increase of 1.7 times and 1.6 times year-on-year. In a broad sense, the market growth rate of MPV is higher than that of SUV. It is an indisputable fact and it may become a new round of growth in the industry.
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