The data released on August 31st by the Xinhua News Agency’s oil price system shows that as of August 30th, the average change rate of crude oil crude oil prices in the three places has reached 6.87%, and on September 10th, it will meet the “22 working days†of refined oil price adjustments. "The conditions for refined oil prices may be raised again.
Analysts believe that the recent international oil price is likely to remain high or fall slightly. If the price of crude oil in the three places maintains its current level, the rate of change in the three places is expected to reach about 8% by the opening of the price adjustment window. It is expected that the price adjustment of gasoline and diesel announced by the NDRC will be higher than the previous price increase of 390 yuan/ton, which is expected to reach 500 yuan/ton.
Since the beginning of this year, international crude oil prices have been supported by two factors: the loosening of global economic policies and the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East.
Analysts believe that some negative factors in the recent past have shown signs of pressure on oil prices. Jin Tai Futures Analyst Lu Hui said in the research report that there are more short-term crude oil shortfalls. For example, the uncertainties of the European debt issue inhibit risk appetite. The United States and the International Energy Agency may release crude oil reserves, and the US dollar will not be able to sustain a weak mid-term trend. The traditional off-season demand in the country in September and October came. He believes that the probability of a sharp rise in oil prices in the near future is unlikely, and it is very likely that high prices will continue to improve.
Analysts believe that the increase in refined oil prices will benefit the refining sector. Coupled with the fall in the price of imported crude oil, it is expected that the performance of the domestic oil company's refining sector will be improved in September.
In July, the average price of China's imported crude oil fell significantly compared with the first half of the year, and the average import price was US$99/barrel, a decline of more than 10% from the previous month. Combined with the trend of international oil prices, it is expected that the average price of imported crude oil in August will be basically the same as in July.
After the increase in refined oil prices on August 10, domestic refineries basically achieved break-even. If prices are raised again in September, the performance of the refining and chemical industry in the third quarter is expected to increase.
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