Carbon dioxide, like water vapor and ozone, is a major gas that affects the radiative transfer process in the atmosphere, and thus carbon dioxide content is an important factor in controlling atmospheric temperature. As we all know, the temperature of the surface and lower atmosphere is higher than the temperature of the stratosphere and the middle atmosphere. The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is absorbed by the heat radiation from the surface and the lower atmosphere so that it cannot be emitted outside the atmosphere. However, the carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere emits radiation at a relatively low temperature.
Therefore, the presence of carbon dioxide reduces the emission of radiation from the earth-atmosphere system. That is, the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, like the glass in a greenhouse, can maintain a higher surface temperature. If the atmospheric carbon dioxide content increases, the temperature of the surface and lower atmosphere will increase. This shows that changes in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere may bring about a significant climate effect. Since the world-scale industrialization, the result of human activities has indeed increased the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere.
Therefore, its climate effect has become one of the most compelling environmental problems in the world today. However, there is natural fluctuations in the earth's climate, and there are short-term fluctuations and long-term changes. It is necessary to prove that human activities have increased. The climate effect brought about by carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is extremely difficult. Systematic observations since 1958 indicate that by 1978 atmospheric carbon dioxide may have increased about 40 ppm before industrialization. Model calculations show that the climate effect caused by this increase in carbon dioxide is less than the natural fluctuations in the climate. However, people are still worried that if CO2 continues to increase at the rate of growth observed so far, then it will reach 5 to 10 times the pre-industrial concentration hundreds of years later, and it may cause catastrophic climatic effects.
Over the past decade or so, people have used various simplified climate models or complex atmospheric circulation models to explore the climatic effects caused by the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, such as the discussions of Mangabe et al.'s one-dimensional and three-dimensional models Smagorinsky et al. Although the current results are quite different, everyone tends to predict that the carbon dioxide will double and global surface temperature will increase by 2-4°C. This is a considerable number. If the carbon dioxide increases eight-fold, the above-mentioned one-dimensional model predicts that the global average surface temperature will increase by 7°C. This temperature increase can be compared with the maximum temperature fluctuation that has occurred in geological history. Although this estimate can be quantified, there are still many areas in the climate model that need to be improved (even large improvements), but the fact that the atmospheric carbon dioxide content has more than doubled can make a significant change in the climate, which is unquestionable.
This article does not talk about how the increase in carbon dioxide affects the climate, but rather another fundamental difficulty, namely the prediction of the changing trend of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. Now that scientific instruments are well developed, professional instruments such as the carbon dioxide monitor can accurately monitor changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and record them. This issue involves not only many natural science disciplines such as marine chemistry, ocean dynamics, atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric dynamics, biochemistry, and microbiology, but also complex social sciences such as population policies and energy policies in various countries. Complex social issues such as war.
The increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere depends on the increase of anthropogenic emissions (which depends on the world population growth rate, the increase rate and development speed of energy demand, and the speed of development of alternative energy sources, etc.). On the other hand, it depends on natural carbon dioxide storage. The library's response to man-made carbon dioxide emissions, especially the biosphere and ocean response. So far, any forecast of change over decades is just a guess.
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