Oil price increase is expected to increase dealers to wait for oil to rise

On October 19, Nymex closed at 81.25 U.S. dollars per barrel. Since the National Day holiday, it stood above 80 U.S. dollars per barrel.

“According to our estimation, no matter the time or the margin, the time window for the domestic refined oil price to be readjusted has been opened. Now, whether or not the price adjustment is based on the determination of the National Development and Reform Commission,” said Zhong Jian, deputy general manager of the Eastern Oil and Gas Network.

It is precisely with this expectation that the domestic oil product market has been turbulent recently. Not only has Shandong's refining experienced a prosperous production and sales situation, but even PetroChina and Sinopec’s stocks have experienced a year-on-year decline of around 5%.

As international oil prices remain high, many operators are expecting refined oil prices to rise. They all hope that they can pick up prices before the price adjustment in order to make this spread, although it is expected that the price adjustment will not be large.

However, according to Li Li, analyst at CBI Analyst, there has not been a significant change in market supply and demand. The current demand growth will surely fall after the price adjustment forecast (or confirmation). “The previous several price adjustments have been confirmed. this point".

Line up for oil

On the 19th, Zhang Jun came to the refinery operations department in Dongying and hoped to be able to purchase 500 tons of diesel. At this time, the operating department has already queued up teams and many of Zhang Jun’s familiar oil product dealers are crowding here waiting for oil.

Zhang is the deputy general manager of a refined oil sales company in Ningbo, Zhejiang, and is responsible for the company's long-term oil purchases. After 2008, due to the improvement of domestic supply and demand conditions, he has not personally come to Shandong to enter the oil for a long time.

“However, since September, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil, especially diesel, has skyrocketed. Now that international oil prices remain high, who knows what will happen in the next few months? Let's start by ordering more goods!” Zhang Jun said.

According to him, in Zhejiang, many private gas stations have canceled past sales price concessions and their prices are consistent with those of the two major gas stations. Not only that, these gas stations have also cancelled some big sales, “to ensure the future. Sales inventory."

In his view, after 2008, the domestic refined oil market changed its phenomenon of "oil shortage" and turned into an oversupply. In order to sell more oil, they often solicit customers at a price that is less than one or two gross points for gas stations in the two major groups. After August of this year, the supply of domestic market suddenly became tense, especially diesel, and many local Zhejiang refined oil wholesale companies drove up the wholesale price. This made Zhang Jun startled and feared that the market would return to before 2008.

Data from CBI also confirms this.

Since September, the average diesel price in the country has increased by nearly RMB 500/t, while the inventory of refined oil products by the two major groups is only around 13.5 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% from the previous month and a drop of about 5% from the same period last year.

According to Li Li, the main reason for diesel oil shortage was the central short-term supply shortage caused by the centralized overhaul of PetroChina and Sinopec's refineries. With the recovery of these refinery operating rates, diesel supply has gradually improved.

However, high international oil prices pushed these operators into tension again.

Since October 1st the international oil price has broken through 80 US dollars/barrel, there has been no major correction, and as the time has increased, various conditions for domestic oil price adjustment are gradually being satisfied.

In the "Oil Prices Management Measures (Trial)" promulgated in May 2009, when the average price of crude oil in the three markets of the international market changes continuously for more than 4% for 22 working days, the Development and Reform Commission's Price Division may adjust gasoline, diesel and aviation accordingly. Kerosene and other refined oil prices.

“According to our calculations, these two conditions have been met by the 20th of this month. The next step is to adjust the price and not to see the NDRC.” Zhong Jian said.

Since the price increase can be achieved at any time, Zhang Jun’s oil escalation action is not difficult to understand.

Reform pricing mechanism?

Regarding the effect of the implementation of the “Petroleum Prices Management Measures (Trial)”, although the industry has highly praised them, the artificially set “22 days” and “4%” have caused Zhong Jian and others to regret.

“This is mainly because the National Development and Reform Commission is not transparent about the forming factors of these two conditions, such as when the 22-day period is calculated, and when the 4% calculation is based on the price at which time,” said Zhong Jian.

Because these factors are unclear, many business operators and industry analysts, including Zhong Jian, can only judge the next step of the National Development and Reform Commission by guessing and summarizing past experience. However, this will undoubtedly artificially distort normal price movements. , resulting in a short-term imbalance in market supply and demand.

Regarding this issue, the National Development and Reform Commission and other relevant agencies are all very clear. However, given the increasing dependence on foreign oil, officials of relevant departments have stated in an interview that “these factors will not be transparent and will not be Domestic prices are directly linked to international prices."

Earlier this year, the reporter went to Johannesburg in South Africa to interview him and discovered that in South Africa, which is a country with foreign dependence of over 70% and has encountered international embargoes, its refined oil prices have achieved convergence with international prices.

According to the relevant personage of South African Sasol Company, the largest oil company in the region, South Africa adopted the crude oil import market evaluation mechanism. Its refined oil prices are also subject to monthly adjustments, and it is timely connected with international oil prices. “But here is the price adjustment information announced one week in advance. In order to allow operators and consumers to have sufficient preparation and response time, there will never be any oil rush or oil shortage."

As a matter of fact, the National Development and Reform Commission and other countries that are highly dependent on other foreign countries are not aware of the refined oil pricing mechanism. However, for the steady development of the Chinese economy and the need to curb inflation, the National Development and Reform Commission has not delayed the development of refined oil products in China. The pricing mechanism carries out more extensive reforms.

"Oil is the basic material for the national economy. The rise and fall in its price will have a major impact on the entire national economy. We must be cautious," said an official with the National Energy Administration.