In 2006, the American chemical industry had withstood the test of hurricanes, geopolitical instability, and substantial increases in the cost of raw materials and energy, achieving remarkable results. Looking into the new year, we also added a bit of misery at the same time of optimism: the slowdown in economic growth, the end of the chemical economy cycle, and the weakening of the two major chemical user markets of real estate and automobiles, giving the prospects for the US chemical industry in 2007 It casts a shadow. For Canada Chemical Industry, the large fluctuations in natural gas prices and the strong performance of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar will be two major challenges for 2007.
According to the US Chemical Engineering and News, the production of chemicals in the United States in 2006 increased by 2.4% from the previous year, of which the output of basic chemicals was at the first place with an increase of 3%. The chemical production price index also performed well, with an increase of 7.4% over the previous year. The price index for basic chemicals increased by 12.9%, ranking first. In 2006, US chemicals sales were approximately US$580 billion, an increase of 5.3% over the previous year. Excluding approximately US$155 billion in pharmaceutical sales (up 11.8% from the previous year), sales of other US chemicals were approximately US$425 billion, an increase of 3% over the same period last year.
In 2006, Canadian chemicals sales reached 45.9 billion Canadian dollars, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year, of which sales of basic chemicals increased by approximately 11.6% year-on-year, and sales of resins and synthetic fibers rose by 9.7% year-on-year. However, the sales price of chemical products in Canada in 2006 was only slightly higher than the previous year by 1.4%.
From the point of view of corporate profitability, the earnings of US chemical companies in 2006 showed a good quarter-to-quarter trend. In the first quarter, the profits of American chemical companies fell by 2.7% year-on-year, and sales revenue increased by 5.1% year-on-year. The situation improved in the second quarter, with profits up 0.4% year-on-year, and sales revenue up 6.6% year-on-year. In the third quarter, the price of natural gas in the United States dropped, and chemical company profits jumped 23% year-on-year, and sales revenue increased by 11.4% year-on-year.
For Canadian chemical companies, it was not so lucky.
In 2006, Canadian chemical company's pre-tax operating profit decreased by 7.0% year-on-year to 1.5 billion Canadian dollars. According to the Canadian Chemical Manufacturers Association, the main reason for the decline in profitability is that the Canadian chemical product price increase is far less than the increase in raw material and energy costs.
What will be the North American chemical industry outlook in 2007? Economists, consultants and analysts said that 2006 was a good year for the North American chemical industry, and 2007 may also face more challenges.
At the end of 2006, economists lowered their forecasts for the US economy in 2007. The NABE survey results show that the US real GDP growth rate in 2007 is expected to be 2.5%, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than the previous forecast of 2.7%.
The American Chemicals Commission (ACC) predicts that the prospects for the US chemical industry this year are promising, even more optimistic than in 2006. In 2007, the growth rate of the American chemical industry (including the pharmaceutical industry) will reach 3.2%, and the growth rate in 2006 is estimated to be 2.1%. ACC chief economist T. Kevin Swift said that in 2007, the rapid growth of the United States leading the chemical industry will be the pharmaceutical industry, is expected to grow by 5%, while the growth rate of the US pharmaceutical industry in 2006 was -0.6%. Excluding the pharmaceutical industry, the growth rate of the chemical industry in the United States in 2007 was only 1.9%, while the growth rate in 2006 was expected to be 4.5%. However, he also warned that the US chemical industry will still face some risks this year. The biggest risk is still the large fluctuations in the cost of natural gas.
However, Merrill Lynch expressed concern over the prospects of the US chemical industry in 2007. The company’s analysts believe that in the fourth quarter of last year, the profitability of US ethylene and its derivatives producers declined sharply. The weak demand led to a drop in prices, and the decline was much greater than the drop in raw material prices. In the first three quarters of 2006, the operating rate of ethylene plants in the United States exceeded 95%, while the operating rate in the fourth quarter was only 91%.
Merrill Lynch also mentioned that the slowdown in the growth of the American housing industry led to a weak demand for PVC in the United States. PVC accounts for about 20% of the US construction industry's demand. It is reported that in October 2006, North American PVC production decreased again by 12% on the basis of a 5% decline in September, and continued to decline in November and December. The drop in PVC production led to a weak demand for ethylene and liquid chlorine.
The Canadian Chemical Manufacturers Association predicts that 2007 will be a good year for Canada. It is expected that chemical product sales will maintain its 2006 level, but sales prices will rebound slightly. Therefore, sales of chemicals in Canada are expected to increase in 2007. Operating profit is expected to increase by 18% to C$1.8 billion, and capital investment is expected to increase by 17% to C$1.2 billion, the highest level since 2000.
According to the US Chemical Engineering and News, the production of chemicals in the United States in 2006 increased by 2.4% from the previous year, of which the output of basic chemicals was at the first place with an increase of 3%. The chemical production price index also performed well, with an increase of 7.4% over the previous year. The price index for basic chemicals increased by 12.9%, ranking first. In 2006, US chemicals sales were approximately US$580 billion, an increase of 5.3% over the previous year. Excluding approximately US$155 billion in pharmaceutical sales (up 11.8% from the previous year), sales of other US chemicals were approximately US$425 billion, an increase of 3% over the same period last year.
In 2006, Canadian chemicals sales reached 45.9 billion Canadian dollars, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year, of which sales of basic chemicals increased by approximately 11.6% year-on-year, and sales of resins and synthetic fibers rose by 9.7% year-on-year. However, the sales price of chemical products in Canada in 2006 was only slightly higher than the previous year by 1.4%.
From the point of view of corporate profitability, the earnings of US chemical companies in 2006 showed a good quarter-to-quarter trend. In the first quarter, the profits of American chemical companies fell by 2.7% year-on-year, and sales revenue increased by 5.1% year-on-year. The situation improved in the second quarter, with profits up 0.4% year-on-year, and sales revenue up 6.6% year-on-year. In the third quarter, the price of natural gas in the United States dropped, and chemical company profits jumped 23% year-on-year, and sales revenue increased by 11.4% year-on-year.
For Canadian chemical companies, it was not so lucky.
In 2006, Canadian chemical company's pre-tax operating profit decreased by 7.0% year-on-year to 1.5 billion Canadian dollars. According to the Canadian Chemical Manufacturers Association, the main reason for the decline in profitability is that the Canadian chemical product price increase is far less than the increase in raw material and energy costs.
What will be the North American chemical industry outlook in 2007? Economists, consultants and analysts said that 2006 was a good year for the North American chemical industry, and 2007 may also face more challenges.
At the end of 2006, economists lowered their forecasts for the US economy in 2007. The NABE survey results show that the US real GDP growth rate in 2007 is expected to be 2.5%, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than the previous forecast of 2.7%.
The American Chemicals Commission (ACC) predicts that the prospects for the US chemical industry this year are promising, even more optimistic than in 2006. In 2007, the growth rate of the American chemical industry (including the pharmaceutical industry) will reach 3.2%, and the growth rate in 2006 is estimated to be 2.1%. ACC chief economist T. Kevin Swift said that in 2007, the rapid growth of the United States leading the chemical industry will be the pharmaceutical industry, is expected to grow by 5%, while the growth rate of the US pharmaceutical industry in 2006 was -0.6%. Excluding the pharmaceutical industry, the growth rate of the chemical industry in the United States in 2007 was only 1.9%, while the growth rate in 2006 was expected to be 4.5%. However, he also warned that the US chemical industry will still face some risks this year. The biggest risk is still the large fluctuations in the cost of natural gas.
However, Merrill Lynch expressed concern over the prospects of the US chemical industry in 2007. The company’s analysts believe that in the fourth quarter of last year, the profitability of US ethylene and its derivatives producers declined sharply. The weak demand led to a drop in prices, and the decline was much greater than the drop in raw material prices. In the first three quarters of 2006, the operating rate of ethylene plants in the United States exceeded 95%, while the operating rate in the fourth quarter was only 91%.
Merrill Lynch also mentioned that the slowdown in the growth of the American housing industry led to a weak demand for PVC in the United States. PVC accounts for about 20% of the US construction industry's demand. It is reported that in October 2006, North American PVC production decreased again by 12% on the basis of a 5% decline in September, and continued to decline in November and December. The drop in PVC production led to a weak demand for ethylene and liquid chlorine.
The Canadian Chemical Manufacturers Association predicts that 2007 will be a good year for Canada. It is expected that chemical product sales will maintain its 2006 level, but sales prices will rebound slightly. Therefore, sales of chemicals in Canada are expected to increase in 2007. Operating profit is expected to increase by 18% to C$1.8 billion, and capital investment is expected to increase by 17% to C$1.2 billion, the highest level since 2000.
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