In January 2018, the early warning index for auto dealers' inventory was 67.2%, which was a 19.5 percentage point increase from the previous quarter and was above the warning line. According to the circulation association, the early warning index for distributor stocks has risen largely because of the withdrawal of small-displacement purchase tax in 2018, and the demand for vehicle purchases in this area has decreased.
It is worth mentioning that in 2017, the transaction volume of the used car market in China exceeded 12.4 million vehicles for the first time, setting a record high. Xiao Zhengsan stated that the explosive growth of second-hand automobiles is inextricably linked with the state's policy of “removing restricted use of used carsâ€.
On February 1, the China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Circulation Association") released monthly data showing that in January 2018, the inventory warning index of automobile dealers was 67.2%, which was a sharp increase of 19.5 percentage points from the previous quarter and was above the warning level. According to the circulation association, the demand for the automobile market in the beginning of 2018 is not strong, and dealers are under greater pressure.
Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the Circulation Association, said that the early warning index for dealer stocks has risen largely because of the withdrawal of small-displacement purchase tax in 2018, and the demand for vehicle purchases in this area has decreased; secondly, recent snowfall in most parts of China has affected automobile sales; Again, the spring tide of returning home to the Spring Festival came up in advance, and the phenomenon of buying a car to go home for a long time decreased. Finally, the disposable income of some consumers declined, and purchasing power was insufficient.
From the inventory pre-warning index, the sub-index of market demand and sales sub-index fell sharply in January from the previous month; the sub-index of operating conditions also fell, while the index of inventories and the sub-index of employees rose. In view of this, there was a weak market demand in January. The circulation association said that unlike the tail lifting phenomenon at the end of 2017, the market demand decreased in January this year, resulting in a sharp decline in average daily sales. As a result, the operating conditions also declined, and the final inventory index increased.
In addition, the circulation association also announced the January 2018 regional dealer inventory warning index. The national total index for January was 67.2%, of which 72.7% for the North District Index, 67.2% for the Western Region Index, 50.9% for the Southern District Index, and 63.4% for the Eastern District Index. As can be seen from the data, in each region, the regional early-warning index was above the warning level in January. The circulation association believes that the highest index in the North Zone is mainly because the economic decline in the three provinces in recent years has been very serious. At the same time, the outflow of people has caused a lack of demand for new cars; while the southern region has a relatively developed economy and local consumers have a stronger purchasing power, so there is no adjustment in the market. Obviously affected.
It is worth mentioning that, in January 2018, Circulation Association added a stock alert early warning sub-brand type index. In January, the joint venture brand index and self-owned brand index rose sharply, and the import brand index was basically the same as last month. The circulation association stated that the withdrawal of the purchase tax preferential policy has a greater impact on joint venture brands and independent brands. In addition, the joint-venture brand stock index early warning index was severely divisive, with South Korea and the legal system dragging its feet.
In addition, the circulation association also made predictions on the annual sales of domestic cars in 2018. According to the circulation association, “Our judgment on the auto market in 2018 is slightly pessimistic, and it is already a good situation to maintain zero growth.†Among them, the lack of purchasing power is the main reason. In addition, countries in the world will experience a deep-floating adjustment in the eighth to tenth years of the first year of automobile popularization, and China is currently in a period of adjustment.
It is worth noting that, in 2017, the transaction volume of the used car market in China exceeded 12.4 million for the first time, setting a record high. Data show that in 2017, the cumulative sales of used cars in China reached 12.09 million, an increase of 19.33% year-on-year, and the transaction volume reached 809.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%.
Sale of used cars from 2011 to 2017
According to Xiao Zhengsan, Secretary-General of the Circulation Association, no matter whether the transaction volume or growth rate of second-hand automobiles reached a record high in 2017, the explosive growth of second-hand automobiles is inextricably linked with the state's policy of “removing restricted use of used carsâ€. In addition, China’s car ownership amounted to 210 million vehicles, laying a firm foundation for second-hand cars; the certification and price of used cars were transparent, reshaping consumer confidence; the vehicles purchased in 2009 reached the replacement period, triggering the endogenous power of the used car market. It is also an important factor in the dramatic growth of used cars.
In December 2017, the nation's used-car market had a trading volume of 1,239,900, and the transaction volume increased by 7.41% compared with the previous period, a year-on-year increase of 13.85%. According to industry sources, car dealers worry that the used car will increase by one year after the end of the year, thus reducing the sales price of car sales. Thanks to this, the used car market performed well in December.
Recalling that in 2017, the number of transactions of used cars reached more than one million in multiple months, and in December it reached a record high of 1,23,900. In addition, the growth rate of used-car transactions is mostly above 15% for the whole year, and there are also growth rates of more than 20% in five months.
In terms of specific models, in 2017, the country’s second-hand car models were still based on basic passenger cars, accounting for 59.43%, followed by passenger cars with 10.74%, trucks with 9.01%, SUV with 7%, and MPVs. 5.83%. Compared with 2016, the proportion of passenger cars, SUVs, and MPs has increased compared with other cars. Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the circulation association, said that the proportion and changes in second-hand car transactions are similar to those of the new car, and the increase in the SUV base has led to an increase in the trading volume of used car-related models.
From the perspective of useful life, the number of transactions of used cars in 3-6 years is the highest in 2017, accounting for 43.49%, followed by 24.7% in 3 years, 22% in 7-10 years, and 9.44% in 10 years or more. .
In 2017, the second-hand vehicle trading market has the largest market share with a vehicle price range of less than 30,000 yuan, accounting for 36.36% of the total. It is worth noting that the average price of used cars in 2017 was 65,300 yuan, up from 0.72 million yuan last year. Luo Lei said that, like the new car market, this year's used car market is characterized by consumption upgrades.
When talking about sales of used cars in 2018, Luo Lei said that after entering 2018, there are many favorable factors for used cars. First of all, the Ministry of Commerce will further promote the comprehensive elimination of the "relocation limit" policy for used cars; secondly, the revision of the second-hand car circulation management plan will also raise the agenda; finally, the used car tax policy and product attributes are also being spared in promotion. These factors will have a significant impact on used car transactions, so the circulation association predicts that the volume of used car sales in 2018 may climb to 15 million vehicles, with an increase rate of 15-20%.
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