In the past 2007, oil prices in the international market continued to soar. Analysts believe that from a near-term perspective, the factors that drive higher oil prices will not change fundamentally, and oil prices will likely continue to operate at high levels.
In 2007, the oil price in the international market showed a continuous upward trend, especially in the second half of 2007, the oil price rose abnormally rapidly. Among them, the New York market oil prices hit a record high of $99.29 per barrel on November 21, 2007, once almost equal to the $100 per barrel mark. Although the price of oil in the New York market has dropped somewhat since then, it has remained above US$95 per barrel. In 2007, the price of oil in the New York market rose by about 57%.
International oil market analyst Ihsan Haqe pointed out that the main factors driving the continuous rise of oil prices in 2007 include: speculation in the market, the weak dollar, geopolitical tensions, and crude oil production in oil-producing countries other than the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Obviously lower than expected. These factors cannot be fundamentally changed in the short term.
First, speculation in the international crude oil market is still active. In recent years, as oil prices continue to climb, more and more investors have entered the international crude oil futures trading market to speculate on profits. This part of speculative traders has gradually become an important factor affecting the trend of oil prices. At present, the downside risks faced by the U.S. economy have increased significantly, and major global financial markets, such as the New York Stock Exchange, may experience a downward adjustment. In this case, investing in crude oil futures has become the choice of many investors.
The depreciation of the dollar further stimulated investors' demand for crude oil futures. On the one hand, under the background of the continuous depreciation of the U.S. dollar and high oil prices, many investors choose to purchase crude oil futures in order to achieve investment protection. On the other hand, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar also makes the dollar-denominated crude oil futures price cheaper for investors holding non-dollar assets, which also stimulates some investors' demand for crude oil futures.
Second, geopolitical factors can not neglect the role of oil prices. In the second half of 2007, a series of geopolitical events all contributed to the higher oil prices. Among them, the protracted Iran nuclear issue and the Turkish army's strike against the Kurdish Workers' Party in northern Iraq have all become important factors in pushing up the price of oil. The market is worried that the continuous turmoil in the Middle East may affect crude oil extraction and transportation in the region, thus threatening the supply of crude oil in the international market.
In addition, although the global economic growth rate will slow down in 2008, overall it will continue to maintain a growth trend, and global crude oil demand will not drop substantially. According to the latest data released by OPEC, the average daily crude oil demand in the world in 2007 is expected to be 85.74 million barrels, an increase of 1.42% over 2006. In 2008, the average daily global crude oil demand will further reach 87.06 million barrels, 1.54% more than in 2007.
In addition, according to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, the global average daily demand for crude oil in 2008 will increase from 2007 to 87.2 million barrels, while the average price of oil will approach US$85 per barrel.
Many analysts believe that the balance of supply and demand in the international crude oil market has been very fragile in recent years, and there are slight signs that demand is in short supply. This is the fundamental reason why oil prices continue to rise and are prone to sharp fluctuations. Unless there is a major change in the relationship between supply and demand in the market, it is unlikely that the situation of high oil prices will change in the short term. However, it is worth noting that if speculative traders take profit-taking operations, or if OPEC decides to increase crude oil production, it does not rule out the possibility of a drop in oil prices.