For the crude oil importer in the past week, it was a bit shocking. On May 3rd, OPEC organized seven markets to monitor crude oil's average price above US$34 per barrel. The four-day gain never diminished. On the 5th, it broke through the US$35 per barrel mark and reached US$35.30, marking a new high in 13 years. On the 8th, on the first working day after China’s May 1 holiday, news came from the New York Stock Exchange that the price of light crude oil had approached 40 US dollars. Although the international oil price is soaring, it is impossible to immediately respond to domestic refined oil prices. However, such a high fever has caused many companies and even ordinary consumers in Shanghai to worry that if they continue to burn, they will sooner or later affect domestic oil prices and increase production and living. cost. The three suspense caused by the high fever in the international oil market has attracted special attention. When does the high fever stop? The high fever in the oil market is no longer a short-term phenomenon. Industry sources told reporters that in fact, since the outbreak of the Iraq war last year two months ago, the “heat†of the oil market has not been fundamentally eased. Over the past year or so, despite the volatility of oil prices, it has continued to “heat up†as a whole. When will this persistent high fever be able to subside? The industry’s views on this issue are becoming increasingly pessimistic. The reporter noted that at the end of last year, many analysts believed that the average price of international oil prices this year was around US$24 to US$25/barrel. But today, the general view has become "the price of oil will remain at 30 US dollars / barrel or more in the second half of this year", "the high price will last until at least this fall." This change in psychological expectations actually shows that people are no longer hoping that the price of oil can “fight off†in the short term. People are looking for a “sick cause†for high fever, such as terrorist attacks, OPEC production cuts, and Iraq’s problems are still pending. However, due to changes in psychological expectations, it is difficult for the international oil city’s high fever to be explained by these objective factors. There is a strong speculative atmosphere. Thus, although the US Department of Energy reported on May 5 that "the United States increased gasoline inventories by 4 million barrels last week," such an information that could have stabilized oil prices has not prevented oil prices from continuing to rise. Therefore, in the short term, when the high fever in the oil market can be alleviated, the answer to this question becomes increasingly uncertain. How much pressure? As domestic refined oil prices still fall under the control of the state, for most people, the new round of rising international oil prices has not directly affected itself. However, for oil refineries and chemical companies that directly import crude oil from abroad and their downstream industrial chains, they have already faced cost pressures. Some world economic experts believe that high oil prices will hinder the growth of the world economy, but the weak dollar can ease the pressure on oil prices. In the past year, international oil prices rose by 30% in U.S. dollars, but the U.S. dollar fell by nearly 15% during the same period, so the actual increase in international oil prices has not been so high. However, industry insiders told reporters that Chinese companies are unlikely to ease cost pressures as the exchange rate between the renminbi and the US dollar has remained relatively constant. For Chinese companies, the rise in oil prices is a real cost. In addition to cost pressures, these companies also face unpredictable risks. Although most people think that the high price of oil will be a relatively long-term phenomenon, in the face of the historical high near US$40/barrel today, nobody is sure whether it will stage a fierce shock in the short term. When to buy, how much to buy, itself becomes a very risky thing. Domestic oil prices rose? Although there is a certain degree of lag, the rise in international oil prices will eventually affect domestic refined oil prices. Over the past year or so, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted several times, each time related to the strong rise in international oil prices. The last price adjustment of domestic refined oil prices was on April 1 this year. Taking Shencheng as an example, the three kinds of gasoline rose between 8% and 8.4%, and the cheapest 90th gasoline price also reached 3.22 yuan per litre. This price increase has caused widespread concern in the community, because no matter if it is an increase. The absolute price still makes the oil companies and the majority of car owners feel the pressure. However, it is not difficult to find that since April 1st, international oil prices have gone up a large amount. At that time, the average weekly price of OPEC was 32.61 US dollars / barrel, has risen nearly 3 US dollars so far; when the United States light crude oil price was 35 US dollars / barrel or so, just a month later, this figure rose by nearly 5 US dollars. Industry insiders expect that if the international oil price cannot be reduced in the short term, the domestic refined oil price is bound to face a new round of upward pressure. (Reporter Chen Chunyan)
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