In the first half of the year, the domestic sulfuric acid market has undergone an ups and downs, and an “n†shaped price fluctuation market has emerged. The current price has fallen below the level of the beginning of the year and the overall situation has fallen into a trough. In late July, the average price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China was between 380 and 500 yuan (t price, the same below). 98% of the flue gas price in North China was between 300 and 400 yuan, 98% of South China's sulfuric acid production was The price is 360-380 yuan. The reporter recently interviewed the major sulfuric acid producers in the country and learned that the sulfuric acid market is unlikely to change the downturn in the short term under multiple pressures such as lack of support for upstream costs, oversupply and severe imbalance in supply and demand, shrinking downstream demand, and difficulty in improving the macroeconomic situation. . In the third quarter, the global economy, including China, is not expected to be expected in the future. The market conditions for chemical products generally fall to the bottom, and the sulfuric acid market is also difficult to stay out of the market. The market is still under pressure in the short term.
Upstream sulfur sulfur fatigue At present, China's sulfuric acid production is mainly divided into sulfur acid, smelting flue gas acid, pyrite ore acid three major categories, the structure of the ratio of sulfur acid to total production of nearly 50%, pyrite The proportion of acid production is about 25%, and that of smelting flue gas is about 15%.
Sulfuric acid accounts for half of the sulfuric acid production and is a barometer of changes in the sulfuric acid market. China's sulfur resources are seriously deficient and foreign dependence is not less than 60%, and it is difficult to effectively mitigate in recent years. Since the beginning of this year, due to the continuous downturn in the international economic situation, the sulfur market in the international market has continued to decline. It is understood that in mid-July, the international price of external disks has fallen to nearly 215 US dollars, a year-on-year decline of more than 12%. It can be predicted that in the short-term future, the price of sulfuric acid will inevitably be constrained by the price of sulphur in the upstream raw materials, and it will take time to warm up the market.
Increase in supply of new projects put into production Similar to many chemical products, China's sulfuric acid industry is also a sector with excess capacity. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2011, the domestic sulfuric acid production capacity has approached 90 million tons. It is expected that by 2015 China's sulfuric acid production capacity will approach 100 million tons. According to demand estimates, the excess annual production capacity will reach 10 million tons, and the domestic market will be in a state of serious oversupply for a long time.
Since the beginning of this year, the problem of the decline in the profitability of a single sulfuric acid production enterprise has become prominent. In the first half of the year, some companies suffered serious losses, and several times they stopped producing safe havens, making it difficult to maintain normal production and operations. In the case of this unfavorable supply and demand situation, multiple new projects will continue to be put into production in the second half of the year. Including Liaoning Dashiqiao Shengma Chemical Co., Ltd. in Northeast China, producing 120,000 tons of pyrite-based sulphuric acid, and Fushun Hongtongshan Copper Company producing 60,000 tons of smelting flue gas to produce acid; East China's Jiangsu Lanfeng Bio-Chemical Co. Annual output of 400,000 tons of sulphuric acid, Wuxi Greenepe Chemical Company annual production of 600,000 tons of sulphuric acid, Shandong Mingrui Chemical Group annual production of 300,000 tons of pyrite sulphuric acid; Central China Hubei Fuchi Chemical Company Production of 60,000 tons of sulfuric acid, Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter Group 150,000 tons of smelting flue gas acid production.
Downstream consumption demand has decreased without increasing Sulfuric acid demand mainly includes agriculture and industry. The demand for phosphorus compound fertilizer accounted for about 70% of the amount of sulfuric acid, and industry (light industry, petroleum, metallurgy, fine chemicals, etc.) accounted for nearly 30%.
In recent months, sulfuric acid producers have been hoping that, as in previous years, downstream off-season fertilizer exports could increase the consumption of sulfuric acid, but unexpectedly Jiangsu, Jiangxi and other places will not increase their sulfuric acid consumption from May to July, and prices will appear. The embarrassing situation of dropping again. It is understood that, unlike the previous peak export season of phosphate fertilizers, this year a large number of sources are waiting for the port. As of late July, only a small number of orders were concluded in China, South America, Latin America, and Oceania. Excluding ocean freight, tariffs and domestic freight, only the ex-factory price is 3100 to 3200 yuan. At the same time, domestic demand for phosphate fertilizers also declined, and the overall operating rate of fertilizer enterprises remained at around 70%. The market conditions were depressed, and the purchasing enthusiasm for raw material sulfuric acid was not high.
With respect to industrial acid, the domestic and international environment is poor, and commodity prices have generally declined. Most acid and chemical companies are struggling to operate, and it is difficult to support the demand for sulfuric acid. The industry generally expects that the supply and demand imbalance of sulfuric acid will continue.
The international trade environment continues to deteriorate. Compared with last year, new changes have taken place in the import and export of sulfuric acid in China. According to statistics, China's total imports of sulfuric acid from January to April this year was 348,000 tons, which was basically the same as last year's 379,000 tons. From January to April this year, China's total exports of sulfuric acid was only 1,292 tons, which was a disparity from the 141,000 tons in the same period last year. From May to July, China's sulfuric acid exports have still not changed, and the lack of exports has exacerbated the oversupply in the domestic market and contributed to the lower prices of sulfuric acid.
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