Fertilizer market "happy"
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the economic situation of the fertilizer industry in the first half of 2011. It is predicted that the situation in the second half of the year will be as follows: “The peak of domestic fertilizer consumption has passed, and the trend of reduction in domestic fertilizer demand has become apparent. Coupled with the shortened export window period, the supply exceeds demand, urea and The price of diammonium phosphate will drop, but due to the rigid demand for chemical fertilizers, it will have a positive effect on the domestic market. In the second half of the year, fertilizer production and market demand may maintain a steady growth trend."
In the first half of the year, the profit growth of the fertilizer manufacturing industry reached 76.8%, an increase of 35.4 percentage points from the previous year, leading the entire chemical industry. With the advent of the third quarter, the market entered the peak season for fertilizer sales, and downstream demand will drive the sales of chemical fertilizers to increase significantly. The profit index of the fertilizer sector in the stock market led the listed companies in the chemical industry.
At the same time, raw material prices rose year-on-year, which has played a strong supporting role in maintaining the high price of chemical fertilizer products. Most employees in the industry are optimistic about the market in the second half of the year and believe that the prosperity of the fertilizer industry in the second half of the year is bound to continue.
Fertilizer market "worries"
The "worry" in the fertilizer market is mainly reflected in the following two aspects:
First, the price of raw materials has risen, and the cost of fertilizer production has increased. According to the statistics of industry associations, from January to May, the average national average raw coal for plants was 1,456 yuan per ton, which was 340 yuan more than that of the same period of last year; natural gas for chemical fertilizers began to adjust by 40% from June 2010, and the supply was still tight. According to the statistics of the association, in May there was still urea production capacity of 10,800 tons/day, which accounted for 30.6% of the urea production capacity. In the first half of this year, the utilization rate of urea companies was only 76.5%, and the cumulative capacity utilization rate was only 84.3%. Sulfur prices have risen, leading to increased production costs of phosphate fertilizers. At present, domestic sulphur prices have reached as high as 1800 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as foreign prices of 265 US dollars/ton.
The association reflects that Sinopec’s high price of sulphur procurement and raising the price of domestic sulphur have seriously affected the domestic industry’s safety of phosphate fertilizers. The price increase of ammonium phosphate is related to many factors. One is that the price of phosphate rock has risen and the cost has risen. There are rumors that the price of sulfur in the Middle East for China's third quarter has been initially determined at 210 US dollars/ton, which means that the price of sulfur is short-term. Difficult to fall; Second, the market demand is more prosperous, a large amount of ammonium pending orders, and more diammonium exports, most manufacturers are in tight spot; Third, some artificial speculation factors affect the manufacturer's judgment, the positioning of the price is inaccurate. Recently, the rate of increase in the price of ammonium has slowed down compared with the previous few weeks. It is a forced stoppage or reorganization. I believe it will soon be clear, because overall favorable factors dominate, and it is expected that the prices of ammonium and diammonium will continue to rise. At least the first half of the fall market will remain strong.
Second, domestic potash fertilizers are difficult to transport, and the import potash fertilizers have not been reduced. China's potassium resources are mainly distributed in two regions of Qinghai and Xinjiang, and its potassium fertilizer production accounts for 95% of the country. According to the association, at present, the transportation of potash fertilizers in Qinghai and Xinjiang is difficult and there are more backlogs of products. By the end of June, the accumulated potassium pressure in the Qinghai region was 1.8 million tons, and the accumulated potassium pressure in Xinjiang was 180,000 tons. Due to the high price of imported potash fertilizer, the market for compound fertilizer in China has been weakening in recent days.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission website issued a report predicting that after the compound fertilizer market resumes peak season in September, potash fertilizer demand will increase, which may again drive up the price of potash fertilizer. Due to the scarcity of resources, the dependence on potash fertilizer in China is as high as 60% or more. For potash fertilizer prices, our country basically has no voice, and domestic prices closely follow international potash fertilizer price changes. Now the international potash fertilizer market is monopolized by several big giants, and their bargaining power is very strong. Due to the small amount of potassium fertilizer newly added in the previous two years, the two giants of Mosaic and Potash predicted that the supply and demand of international potash fertilizer will be in a tight balance in the next few years. In addition to the pattern of international liquidity flooding, it is relatively certain that international potash fertilizer prices are in a rising channel. Although some enterprises in our country (Luo Ka, Salt Lake) have increased their production capacity, due to the scarcity of resources, Chinese companies still have less discourse power in the international potash fertilizer market. It is predicted that the upward trend of potash fertilizer prices in the second half of the year may still be a high probability event. Affected by this, compound fertilizer producers and downstream farmers may be under pressure. Some experts analyzed that there are two main reasons for the continued rise in potash fertilizer prices in the country. One is that the international monopoly oligos jointly raise prices through limited production, and the other is that domestic manufacturers and large traders reluctantly sell goods and tighten their supply.
Because the current domestic and foreign demand for potassium fertilizer, especially the rise in the price of agricultural products, gave a strong support for the increase in fertilizer prices. At the same time, potash has a resource property, and the international oligopoly will monopolize it. The coexistence of many factors has led to the recent upward trend in potash prices. Potash stocks are now low in various countries. North America stocks are less than 2 million tons, which are the reasons for the increase in fertilizer prices. After a new round of capacity expansion, China's current potash fertilizer production has reached 4 million to 5 million tons per year, which has basically reached the maximum capacity limit, but there is still a large gap compared to the annual demand of at least 10 million tons in China. Potassium fertilizers need to be imported to protect domestic supplies.
Four points of marketing
As a fertilizer distribution company, in the “happy and miserable†market environment, the marketing is nothing more than the following four points:
First, take advantage of the opportunity to seize the business opportunities, timely purchase, adequate replenishment. Judging from the current market situation, proper replenishment, follow-up, and the need to ensure daily supply is still a perfect solution. In the market with high prices, many companies have insufficient supply. Once they are eager to use fertilizer, dealers will take goods together. It is very likely that there will be no supply of goods. Seeing that business opportunities have slipped away without telling them, customers cannot provide timely supplies when they want to use fertilizers, and they may also affect corporate reputation.
Second, consider the inflation factor, exercise caution, prices are high, can not speculation, hoarding. The price of raw materials is now much higher than the price of the same period of previous years. As the country's efforts to control inflation have increased, the risk of shipments has also increased.
Recent tariff adjustments, fertilizer-related product exports have shown signs of decline. Affected by the domestic and international fertilizer market, price return is only a matter of time. Although the current price of fertilizer market is showing an upward trend, the exact price trend is still not very clear. If a large number of stocks are sold at this time, it will probably not be a problem if they can be sold in the short term. However, if a large number of fertilizers are in their hands, if the market price of fertilizers falls in the next few months, if they go along with the market, they will suffer economic losses.
Third, the business closely follows the market, and always pays attention to changes in domestic and foreign conditions and financial and fiscal policies. Recently, with the rapid rise in the prices of agricultural products, the market for fertilizers has gradually improved. The market price of fertilizers in China continues to rise, and the export volume is increasing. However, due to the rapid increase in the price and the surge in export volume, China's chemical fertilizer market supply and price stability are affected. Today's more stringent fertilizer export policies have inhibited the export of chemical fertilizers. With excess capacity and rising raw material prices, increasing exports is one of the main profit-making channels for domestic fertilizer producers. The state's new chemical fertilizer export policy may limit the export of chemical fertilizers, which will cause the original fertilizers used for export to turn to domestic sales, thereby aggravating the competition in the domestic fertilizer market.
Fourth, business innovation, take the brand channel marketing terminal. After years of development and accumulation, the fertilizer industry has evolved into a polarization between strong brands and small and medium-sized brands. On the one hand, big brands and small brands rely on excellent marketing to seize the market heights. On the other hand, a large number of small and medium-sized brands are fiercely stifle. .
There are two reasons for this trend: First, the rise of the brand requires intensive cultivation and excellent terminal marketing; second, the huge potential market is like a fat, attracting a large number of industry professionals with lofty ideals.
Creating a brand requires the support of mechanisms and systems. There are two principles that are particularly important in channel construction and terminal strategy. One is that the channels must be meticulously managed in a data-oriented manner, and more emphasis must be placed on the design of channel business appraisers and incentive mechanisms, rather than maximizing cost support; followed by the market. The investment in marketing expenses should be put on the image of the terminal more; the operation of the third terminal market must be extended from the previous county and township network construction sites to the village group and transferred to the state-owned farms, collective cooperatives, and individual farmers. Achieve sinking sales channels.
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