Experts predict the development prospects of instrumentation industry

The correct prediction of the instrumentation industry is an important indicator for the development of the instrumentation industry. Instrumentation is an industry that has been discovered very quickly. After the baptism of the past economic crisis, instrumentation has also suffered serious losses. Let us Experts give briefings to industry professionals.

The foreign-funded enterprises’ profit rate ranks first in the instrument and meter industry in the first place. In the high-speed development period at the end of the “Tenth Five-year Plan” and the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, their production and sales accounted for 45% of the entire industry and their profits exceeded 50%. . Affected by the financial crisis and other factors, its production and sales ratio fell to 32.6% last year, and its profit ratio fell to 37.6%. In the first half of this year, foreign-funded enterprises came out of the bottom, with a production-to-sales ratio of 31.5%. However, from January to May, their profit growth was as high as 107.8%, accounting for 41.6% of the total.

“Compared with domestic companies, the profits of foreign-funded enterprises accounted for 10% higher than the proportion of comparative production and sales, and the main-account profit rate reached 10%, which was much higher than that of private and state-owned enterprises. This reflects the fact that Exports accounted for a large proportion (43.5% of outbound/sales ratios). Production and sales did not pick up quickly, but they had the characteristics and advantages of high technology and management level and strong innovation capability."

Industry's adaptability to economic restructuring. China's industrial sector is facing an upsurge of corporate technological transformation driven by the implementation of energy-saving emission reductions and enhancement of independent innovation capabilities. The resulting large demand for measurement and control equipment will continue in the second half of the year. At the same time, the demand for monitoring and control equipment in emerging industries such as new energy has been or is being formed, but most of this type of equipment is still dependent on imports. Although some companies have made progress and breakthroughs, their capabilities and adaptability are yet to be tested.

In addition, it also includes the status of the international market and exchange reform efforts. Yan Jiacheng told reporters that in addition to affecting imports and exports, some foreign-funded enterprises also use foreign exchange reform to further reduce price competition. While maintaining the advantage of the high-end market, they also try to expand the market share in the mid-range and even low-end markets.

"Although the above uncertainties will cause the instrument and meter industry to slow down in the second half of the year, there is little chance of a sharp and sharp drop," Yan Jiacheng said with certainty.

The profit growth rate is still higher than the increase in sales. “Although the base number, the year-on-year growth rate of the industry's profits will continue to fall, but the industry's profit growth can still maintain a good state, the average monthly profit value will continue to rise, the annual profit growth It will still be higher than the increase in production and sales, and the main income margin will exceed 7.5%.”

Prediction: Production and sales growth from year-on-year drop from the high point For the second half of the year, Ju Jiacheng judged that due to the increase in uncertainty in the chain, the year-on-year increase in production and sales will fall from the high point of the year, but it will not drop substantially.

Based on the cumulative year-on-year growth rate in the second quarter and the monthly production and sales value that have entered historically high levels, as well as the country’s efforts to strengthen economic restructuring, “the year-on-year decline in the year-on-year growth in the production and sales of the industry can be determined, but due to the decline in impact and the As the factors of change increase, the uncertainty of the trend will increase."

In this regard, he further explained that this uncertainty first includes the impact of economic restructuring on the demand for instrumentation. For example, measures such as suppression of “double heights” and overcapacity industries and excessive increases in house prices lead to industrial automation control devices, The traditional demand for on-site meters, supply meters, and surveying and mapping instruments has dropped. "The degree of decline is still difficult to determine."

Regarding the strong growth in production and sales in the first half of the year beyond the forecast at the beginning of the year, he summed up the main reasons in three sentences: strong domestic demand, rising exports, and a very low base in the previous year.

It is worth noting that the growth trend of various sub-sectors is different, with strong demand for instruments and meters adapted to energy saving and environmental protection, people's livelihood, and economic restructuring. For example, environmental monitoring equipment has maintained an increase of more than 40% for four consecutive years, and reached the first half of this year. 70.31%; With the increase of automobile output, the increase of automotive instrumentation reached 41.37%. Although the industrial automatic control system devices were affected by the decline in demand from metallurgical and thermal power industries, due to energy saving, emission reduction, technological transformation, and emerging industry demand Rising, these products have increased by more than 30% compared with experimental analysis instruments related to improving the level of scientific research and production; surveying and measuring instruments, supply instruments, and timing instruments, etc., which are greatly affected by infrastructure, real estate, and exports, have seen relatively low growth. .

"This precisely reflects the direction of the country's economic restructuring and the impact of its policies." Yan Jiacheng analyzed.

The sharp rise in profit margins to a high level is accompanied by rapid growth in production and sales, which is a sharp rise in industry profits and a significant increase in imports and exports.

According to Yan Jiacheng, the accumulative profits of the industry from January to May increased by 74.37% year-on-year, and the main-account profit rate reached 7.87%, which is close to the historic high level of 2007, and “more than 1 percentage point higher than the main industry's profit margin”.

The profit recovery of the industry also showed three characteristics: the year-on-year growth rate of the industry with low or negative base growth was high. For example, the growth rate of optical instruments and analytical instruments was as high as 128% and 138% respectively; the foreign-funded enterprises with negative profit growth in the same period last year The growth rate of state-owned holding companies was high, at 108% and 89%, respectively; in addition, some companies with technological progress, structural adjustments, and advancement of modern production management enjoyed rapid growth in profits, such as Zhejiang Zhongcheng and Zhengtai Instrument. “These two companies have paid high-paying foreign experts to implement modern production management, reduce inventory, and increase capital utilization.”