In 2010, driven by the country's generous investment, China's heavy-duty truck industry has seen a spurt increase. However, in 2011, under the influence of macroeconomic policies such as structural adjustment, inflation control, and growth protection, the heavy truck industry lowered its growth expectations and shifted its focus from sales to market share.
Engineering truck leads the first quarter
In the first quarter of 2011, due to favorable factors such as early advance scheduling by various companies and early start-up of construction vehicles, the heavy truck market did not experience the contraction trend predicted previously; the sales volume of the heavy truck market exceeded 290,000 units, an increase of 7% year-on-year; compared to the overall market of the industry Optimistic sales situation, each company's sales performance is also very different.
From a corporate perspective, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, China National Heavy Duty Trucks and FAW Jiefang ranked in the top three; Shaanxi Automobile and Futian Auman followed closely; FAW Liberation was affected by the downturn in the tractor market; it was the only company in the industry to decline year-on-year, with a drop in sales. 22%; China Heavy Duty Truck Dumper was affected by Shaanxi Automobile and Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle. The overall sales volume growth was weak, which was basically the same as that of the same period of last year.
Judging from the model structure, in the first quarter of 2011, there was a large growth in construction trucks such as dumping and agitation, a small increase in trucks, and a large declining trend for tractors.
Heavy dump trucks and truck mixers grew: First, a large number of dump trucks were pre-planned by various companies at the end of 2010, which drastically boosted the sales of dump trucks; secondly, projects that were not completed in 2010 continued construction in 2011. Rigid demand; Third, in 2011 the government continued to increase the transformation of shanty towns such as cities, mining areas, and forest areas, and the construction of affordable housing, rural water conservancy, and the construction of highway pipeline network in the western region, which led to a steady increase in the demand for dump trucks. During the period, sales of the most competitive dump trucks, Sinotruk and Shaanxi Auto, fell by 8% year-on-year in the first quarter, while the latter achieved a 65% year-on-year increase.
The small growth of trucks: It is understood that since the second half of 2010, the freight rate for LTL has been growing steadily. Considering the characteristics of truck-loaded trucks mainly based on LTL distribution, the slight increase in truck sales in 2011 is not a problem.
The towing vehicle fell sharply: In 2010, the explosive growth of tractors overdrawn some of the demand in 2011; the excessive number of operating vehicles and the insignificant increase in overall logistics and freight volume resulted in the current low price of tractor freight and lower operating income; plus fuel costs. As a result, the current sales volume of tractors is mainly concentrated on the renewal of vehicles with fixed supply, and there is little demand for new vehicles.
In addition, on the issue of inventory, according to research conducted by industry insiders, it is found that the current industry inventory is estimated to be more than 220,000 inventories, and some companies may have more than 60,000 vehicles in stock. Considering that the central bank frequently raises the deposit reserve ratio and keeps raising interest rates in the near future, the terminal delivery speed has continued to be slow. Therefore, high inventory will continue into the first half of the year, and companies will change their resources to fight for capital strength. It is not impossible for some models to show promotions.
In the second quarter, 300,000 Swords
In the second quarter, with the continuous escalation of inflation warnings, the central bank will continue to introduce tightening monetary policies to respond. Therefore, people in the industry expect that the second quarter will be tighter in the banking and lending institutions, which is undoubtedly a bad news for the heavy truck industry and its upstream and downstream industries.
In terms of tractors, the long-distance transportation market will be in a downturn due to rising transportation costs such as oil prices and tolls and the tightening of over-control policies. In the current period when the entire vehicle transportation price does not increase, the demand for road vehicles in the second quarter is unlikely to have a big improvement. At the end of the second quarter, with the increase in transportation volume of agricultural and sideline products, building materials, and thermal coal roads, the transportation prices may have a tendency to increase, which may cause the demand for road vehicles to pick up. It is expected that the tractor sales in the second quarter will be about 105,000 units, down 12% year-on-year.
In terms of dump trucks, the second quarter of each year is the peak period of the country's urban reform and infrastructure construction. However, taking into account financing issues, the construction of small and medium-sized real estate projects in the city may slow down. At the same time, heavy truck users will encounter major obstacles in paying for the purchase in phases. Therefore, the sales of construction vehicles such as dump trucks may have declined in the second quarter. It is expected that the sales volume in the second quarter will be approximately 120,000, which is basically the same as last year.
Looking at the sales volume of enterprises, despite the current unclear demand for heavy trucks in the second quarter of 2011, through a comprehensive analysis of the current demand structure of the automobile models, factors such as production capacity, order trends, inventory, and outbound speeds of various companies can also be roughly judged. Second quarter sales of various companies. Obviously, those companies whose models are suitable for the current market demand, have sufficient capacity, have strong orders, and have low inventory will be able to take the lead in the second quarter and come to the fore.
Finally, considering the macroeconomic situation and the policies and regulations affecting the demand for heavy trucks, taking into account the current orders and inventory conditions of various companies, it is estimated that the sales volume in the second quarter of 2011 will reach the level of 300,000 units, and the annual sales volume will be around 900,000 units. . It is expected that more than 65% of sales in the industry will be released in the first half of the year, and the second half of the year will enter the downturn period of the heavy truck market.
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