Development and Reform Commission: In the year 2020, smart cars accounted for 50% of the total number. Is it because it is destructive or a new navigation mark?

Like new energy vehicles, autopilot is the next big thing in the evolution of the automotive industry. While various car companies have laid out autopilots, government departments are also guiding the development of industries in terms of policies.

On January 5, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Intelligent Automobile Innovation Development Strategy (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)” and pointed out that by 2020, the proportion of new vehicles for smart cars will exceed 50%, of which conditional driving (L3) accounts for more than 10%; In 2025, the new car will be basically intelligent, and high-level smart cars will be used in large-scale applications; actively guiding capital will increase support for the intelligent car innovation and development platform.

In 2020, the sales volume of new cars in China will reach a new stage above 30 million vehicles. If the Chinese auto industry can reach 50% or more of the proportion of smart cars in 2020, then more than 15 million new cars will have autopilot function. More than 3 million vehicles will have an L3 level of automatic driving.

In addition to the strict requirements on the proportion of smart cars, the draft of the Opinions also puts forward relevant requirements for the construction of basic facilities for smart cars. By 2020, the assembly rate of new network-automated driving vehicles will reach 10%; the wireless communication network for vehicles LTE-V With a national coverage rate of 90%, Beidou's high-precision space-time service has achieved full coverage; a “smart car innovation and development” platform has been built and is actually operating; the six major (innovation, ecology, facilities, standards, supervision, and security) systems have been initially completed. By the year 2025, the “Human, Vehicle, and Road” cloud will achieve a high degree of synergy. A new generation of automotive wireless communication networks (5G-V2X) will basically meet the development needs of smart cars.

The headline APP noticed that the draft of the Exposure also had a special requirement on the market share of self-owned brands' smart cars, that is, by 2020, the market share of self-owned branded smart cars will reach 30%.

So is this goal too aggressive? Or as a new energy dual-point policy, it has become a catalyst to stimulate the development of the automotive industry?

From 0 to 1

In fact, the NDRC's proposal of such a high percentage of compliance for autonomous vehicles is not groundless. In 2017, two heavy-weight policies have been introduced in the field of automated driving and preparatory work has been carried out.

On September 25, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on soliciting opinions on the "Guideline for the Construction of a National Vehicle Interconnection Industry Standard System." The notice pointed out that accelerating the formulation of common basic standards, stepping up the development of standards related to automatic safety and driver assistance, key technical standards for automotive electronic products, key wireless communication technology standards, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) standards, and the key to 5G eV2X for automotive networking applications The formulation of technical standards will, by 2020, basically complete the national automobile networking industry standard system.

At the end of 2017, the Beijing Municipal Transportation Commission also issued automatic driving guidance documents and management rules. This document defines the definition of autopilot; it regulates autopilot test subjects, test vehicles, test drivers and their behaviors, test procedures, and test areas; and it clarifies autopilot test responsibilities and illegal operation responsibilities.

The Car Headline App understands that the traffic management department will also launch the first test roads that can be used for autonomous driving.

In China, there are also seven autonomous pilot demonstration areas supported by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and various ministries and commissions to conduct tests and demonstrations on intelligent networked vehicles.

It can be seen that the policy-level planning of autopilot is still at the stage of pre-industry development, and the laws and regulations of autopilot are also in the stage of exploration.

The Chinese auto market wants to reach 50% of the smart cars' target. Perhaps the technical problems are easily overcome. However, within three years, the auto-driving industry chain, follow-up auto-driving facilities and relevant laws and regulations related to landing need to be improved. This is undoubtedly another test of the Chinese auto market following the changes in the new energy industry.

Spring Plumbing Duck Prophet

Is the protagonist in this industry revolution, the car company, well prepared?

It is still three years before the NDRC proposed that the proportion of smart cars in 2020 will reach 50%. Currently, under the pressure of the double-point policy, most car companies are still in the transition period of new energy strategies. There are few auto-pilot functions in the market. car.

Even if there are a few models equipped with autopilot, it is only at the L2 level. Only a few models, such as Tesla Model S, Model X and Audi A8, reach the L3 level.

In the automobile market floods, car companies that have a keen sense of the automotive market, in order to occupy a place in the fierce market competition, even if the investment is huge and the transformation is difficult, they have to seize the future of smart cars and networked vehicles, layout Self-driving car.

With policy support, the layout of self-driving cars has become a matter of course. Fu Yuwu, Chairman of the China Association of Automotive Engineers and Chairman of the China Intelligent Network Alliance Automotive Industry Innovation Alliance, said earlier: “Compared to foreign automobile companies, China is in the smart networking industry and I feel that it is fully capable of leading our automotive industry and making use of our Institutional advantages, industrial advantages, to achieve collaboration."

In China's own brands, around the Baidu Apollo project, Chery, FAW, Jianghuai and other car companies have chosen to cooperate with Baidu to promote the development of self-driving vehicles.

In addition, Changan plans to introduce L3 level autopilot to the market for demonstration operation in 2020; Geely Automobile releases the technology brand iNTEC, which is expected to achieve a high degree of automatic driving in 2020; Great Wall Chairman Wei Jianjun said that the current Great Wall autopilot technology is available. Up to L4 standard; Guangzhou Automobile Chuanqi launched the iSPACE concept car and GE3 driverless car in terms of automatic driving...

Obviously, the current layout of autonomous brands for autopilot is still in its infancy. Under the pressure of double-pointing policies, they will focus more on R&D and manufacturing of new energy vehicles to cope with the recovery of strong foreign-funded enterprises in China's new energy sector.

In the face of the question of whether the market share of self-owned branded smart cars can reach 30% by 2020, I believe more people still have a big question mark in mind.