The ex-factory price of industrial products has turned from negative to positive for the first time in 54 months. The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has accelerated, and structural adjustment has made positive progress. Despite the downward pressure on the economy and the potential risks remain, the Chinese economy has emerged in the third quarter. The momentum of "stable down".
Exploring the reasons behind this momentum, the deepening structure of the economy is undoubtedly a huge impetus. This "China Power" is constantly promoting new vitality and impetus to promote China's economy to maintain medium-to-high-speed growth and to move towards the mid- to high-end level.
Broaden the development space with supply-side structural reform
The work started 24 hours, and the workers were three shifts... even if the task could not be completed. From the Fushun Special Steel Third Steelmaking Branch, Fushun Special Steel is now only a high-end variety, and there are more than 50 national projects currently undertaken.
The steel industry, which has been in a loss whirlpool in recent years, has seen a more obvious rebound this year. According to the statistics of China Steel Association, the steel industry performed better than expected in the first eight months of this year. The industry achieved a profit of 21.5 billion yuan, a profit increase of more than 30 billion yuan over the same period last year.
Behind the improvement of the industry is the result of continuous advancement of production capacity in the steel industry. While excess capacity continues to withdraw from the market, not only Fushun Special Steel, many companies have seen the opportunity to "go up the stairs."
Since the beginning of this year, China’s supply-side structural reforms have continued to exert strength, and “three to one, one reduction and one supplement†have achieved practical results and promoted positive changes in economic operations.
-- De-capacity: As of the end of September, both steel and coal industries had completed more than 80% of their annual production capacity. In the first three quarters, raw coal production decreased by 10.5% year-on-year;
- Destocking: The area for sale of commercial housing has decreased for seven consecutive months since March;
-- De-leveraging: At the end of August, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 56.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from the same period of the previous year;
——Reducing costs: In the first 8 months, the cost per 100 yuan of main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 0.26 yuan year-on-year, and the corresponding main business income profit rate increased by 0.28 percentage points year-on-year;
——Complementary shortcomings: From January to September, the ecological protection and environmental management industry, water conservancy management industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery investment increased by 43.4%, 20.5% and 20.1% respectively, faster than the total investment of 35.2, 12.3 and 11.9 percentage points respectively. .
"The positive trend of data transmission is essentially a positive effect on the supply-side structural reform." In the view of Zhang Feng, chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the high-tech manufacturing industry is running well, and the results of de-capacity and short-board performance are fully apparent. Explain this.
The decline in production capacity and inventories led to an improvement in market expectations and led to a stable economic operation.
“The effect of the supply-side structural reform is real and exceeds expectations.†Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that after some of the backward production capacity exited, the market supply and demand relationship changed positively, plus international commodity prices. The rising factors, the rebound in industrial prices, the improvement in profits of industrial enterprises, and the growing confidence in development.
Promoting Power Structure Optimization with Economic Structure Transformation
According to data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the total net profit of 516 GEM companies in the first half of this year increased by 49.48% year-on-year, which is significantly higher than the average profit level of enterprises. Among them, the net profit of computer and communication two emerging industries increased by 70.04% and 96.57%.
Internet of Things, big data, and cloud computing are accelerating; online medical care, online education, and network-related vehicles are growing rapidly... Since the beginning of this year, the share of new technologies, new formats, and new services has continued to expand, and China's economic restructuring has further optimized the power structure.
-- High-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industry maintained rapid growth: In the first three quarters, the added value of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.6% and 9.1% respectively, and the growth rate was 4.6 and 3.1 percentage points faster than that of industrial enterprises above designated size;
-- The tertiary industry continued to grow rapidly: in the first three quarters, the added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 52.8% of GDP, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the same period of the previous year;
-- Consumption contributed further to economic growth: In the first three quarters, the contribution of final consumption to economic growth was 71%, an increase of 13.3 percentage points year-on-year;
—— The investment structure is continuously optimized: investment in high-tech industries and service industries is accelerating, and investment in high energy consumption is declining.
“Overview of the history of the world economy, the economy that moves from middle-income to high-income will tend to shift from heavy chemical industry and exports to service industry and consumption, and the growth rate after power conversion. The downside is in line with economic law," said Li Daokui, director of the China and World Economic Research Center at Tsinghua University.
Sheng Laiyun said that behind the economic growth rate of 6.7% for three consecutive quarters, the quality and efficiency of economic growth continued to increase, and the power structure, industrial structure and demand structure continued to be optimized.
Taxation is another window to observe changes in China's economic structure. Zheng Xiaoying, deputy director of the Department of Revenue Planning and Accounting of the State Administration of Taxation, said that in the first three quarters, the “Internet +†core industry represented by the Internet and related services, software and information technology services industry showed a rapid development trend, with an increase of 11.2% and 39.8 respectively. %.
On the other hand, the tax cuts of related industries have narrowed, reflecting the initial effect of resolving excess capacity. In the first three quarters, taxes on industries such as mining, non-metallic mineral products and non-ferrous metals fell by 31.8%, 2% and 2.5% respectively; the tax revenue of the coal industry fell by 23.5%.
It is also worth noting that the investment growth rate of key tax-source private enterprises has rebounded, with an increase of 33.5% in August. This year, for the first time, it has exceeded the growth rate of state-owned enterprises.
"On the one hand, we must consolidate the foundation for stabilization, on the one hand, we must improve the system of growth and increase the 'gold content' of growth." Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that in the key stage of China's economic transformation and upgrading and kinetic energy transformation, we must improve and reform through reform. The market economy system promotes more rational allocation of resources and more efficient use, laying a solid foundation for the formation of a new development pattern.
Deepening the potential of the market to deepen reform
Since the beginning of this year, Guangzhou Xinke Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd.'s inbound maintenance business has been in full swing. In addition to the strength enhancement factors of domestic aircraft maintenance companies, the simplification of aircraft maintenance entry procedures and the reduction of customs clearance costs are important reasons.
“In the past, the aircraft maintenance process required to go through three levels of approval, it took a lot of energy. Now the approval process is simplified, the guarantee information will be handed in the same day, and the next day will be approved.†The company’s relevant staff told reporters that the time is short. Low cost, of course, more businesses are willing to come to the door.
With the deepening of the reform of the discharge management, the business environment has become increasingly relaxed. In the first three quarters, there were 4.01 million new registered enterprises nationwide, up 27% year-on-year, and the number of newly registered enterprises was 14,600, which was significantly higher than the previous two years.
"The vast majority of newly established enterprises are small and micro enterprises. Enterprises must not only come in, but also survive and live well. Through the analysis of the newly established small and micro enterprise annual survey questionnaire in the third quarter of 2015, it shows that the new small The micro-enterprise activity index was 69.9%, 1.1 percentage points higher than the newly established small and micro enterprises in the second quarter of 2015,†said Yu Fachang, a spokesperson for the State Administration of Industry and Commerce.
Since the beginning of this year, the reform has further advanced and continuously released the vitality and motivation of micro-market entities:
—— Administrative examination and approval projects continued to decrease, investment approval items were greatly reduced, and management and regulatory models such as Internet + government services and “double random and open†continued to emerge, and administrative efficiency and regulatory levels continued to improve;
—— Further deepening the reform of the commercial system. On the basis of the full implementation of the “three-in-oneâ€, this year, the implementation of “five-in-one†and “one photo and one yard†will be launched;
—— The reform of fiscal and taxation finance continued, the reform plan for the division of central and local financial affairs and expenditure responsibility was promulgated, and the financial macro-prudential framework was further improved;
—— The reform of the investment and financing system continued to advance, the investment approval method continued to improve, and the PPP project accelerated.
At the same time, new progress has been made in state-owned enterprise reform, price reform, and ecological civilization system reform. The expansion of the Pilot Free Trade Zone has progressed smoothly, and the RMB has officially been included in the SDR basket currency system. The “Belt and Road†construction and international capacity cooperation have been accelerated.
Liu Yuanchun, executive director of the National Development and Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China, pointed out that on the basis of steady economic growth, we should seize the favorable opportunity and continue to promote structural reforms, especially in important areas and key links such as finance and state-owned enterprises. The reform measures with sexual and significant traction should be accelerated.
He also said that to enhance the sustainability of economic development, we must pay attention to prevent and resolve the structural contradictions and risks hidden in the economy. For example, through a series of regulatory innovations and reforms, the problem of excessive leverage in China's corporate sector is being solved.
"This year is the first year of the '13th Five-Year Plan'. The steady growth of the economy in the first three quarters laid a good foundation for the smooth realization of the annual target." Zhang Liqun said that "China Power" will help the Chinese economy take a new starting point and a new platform. A firmer pace.
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