In recent days, listed companies of commercial vehicles, mainly commercial vehicles, have published 2007 annual reports. Benefiting from the significant growth of the commercial vehicle market as a whole last year, the performance of major commercial vehicle listed companies has been on the rise and net profit has increased substantially, but there is still a large gap between earnings per share. For the overall trend of the commercial vehicle market this year, analysts in the automotive industry generally believe that the trend of growth will continue, but the overall increase in commercial vehicles will inevitably decline.
Last year's overall profit exceeded expectations
Among the more than 30 listed auto companies, more than 10 commercial vehicles are the main business, which is the largest number of major sections. Therefore, the operating conditions of these listed companies can basically represent the overall situation of the industry. From the published 2007 annual report, commercial vehicle companies have achieved good returns in 2007.
Zhongtong Bus (000957)'s 2007 annual report showed that the shareholders' equity at the end of the period was 497,642,600 yuan, and the net profit was 26,723,500 yuan, a substantial increase of 397.47% over the same period of last year, and the basic earnings per share was 0.11 yuan. In 2007, the company produced 6,512 buses and sold 6,508 buses, which achieved sales revenue of 1.333 billion yuan.
Foton Motor announced (600,166) annual report shows that the company's main business income in 2007 was 27.865 billion yuan, an increase of 40.53%; net profit of 388 million yuan, an increase of 642.88%, earnings per share of 0.479 yuan. The annual report shows that Foton Motor's business plan for 2008 was to achieve sales of 440,000 vehicles, sales revenue of 29.2 billion yuan, and total profit of 310 million yuan.
Jianghuai Automobile (600418) reported operating income of 14.371 billion yuan in 2007, an increase of 31.93% year-on-year, and net profit of 372.62 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.12%. Earnings per share was 0.27 yuan. Jianghuai Automobile Co., Ltd. accumulated 204,937 vehicles of various types, a year-on-year increase of 19.45%. The company’s main profit source, Ruifeng Commercial Vehicles, grew by approximately 19%, and its light trucks grew steadily. The growth rate of heavy trucks was approximately 236%. The decline in profit during the reporting period was mainly due to the delay in the listing of the company's cars, but the cost of the previous period was relatively large.
Jiangling Motors (000550) 2007 annual report shows that sales revenue is 8.456 billion yuan, an increase of 10.46% over the previous year, and a net profit of 759 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.71%. Earnings per share of 0.88 yuan. In 2007, the production and sales volume of Jiangling Motors continued to show a steady growth, with 95,059 vehicles sold throughout the year, an increase of 11.55% over the previous year.
According to the 2007 annual report of Xingma Automobile, its operating income for the year was 2.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.24%, and a net profit of 382.52 million yuan, an increase of 21.82% compared with the same period of last year, and an EPS of 0.21 yuan.
In addition to these commercial vehicle listed companies that issued official announcements, some other listed companies have previously issued announcements of pre-income growth.
China National Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. has already announced a substantial increase of 150% to 200% compared with the same period of last year. It is expected that its net profit will reach 224 million yuan, and its estimated earnings per share will be 0.7 yuan. Zhengzhou Yutong Motor Co., Ltd. will sell 24,200 passenger cars with a revenue of 7.8 billion yuan. It is expected that cumulative net profit in 2007 will increase by more than 50% from the same period of last year; Xiamen Golden Dragon also expects cumulative net profit from January to December of 2007 to increase by more than 50% from the same period of last year; Ankai Bus announced a pre-profit announcement, which is expected to compare with the previous year. Compared with the turnaround, the company expects to achieve a net profit of 1,500 to 20 million yuan.
This year will continue to show an overall upward trend
A series of announcements of commercial vehicle listed companies reflected the production and sales situation and profitability of China's commercial vehicle industry in 2007. In 2006, the sales growth of the commercial vehicle industry was only 14%, and it reached 22.3% in 2007. The dramatic increase in the growth rate of commercial vehicles determines the high growth rate of benefits. On the other hand, in 2007 China's auto industry profits increased by 65%, and total profit reached a new high in five years, far exceeding 100 billion yuan, of which commercial vehicle companies have a greater contribution to overall profits.
Regarding the market performance of commercial vehicle companies in 2008, major brokers believe that the industry's production, sales, and profits will maintain a growth momentum this year, but the growth rate will decline. Ping An Securities analyst believes that big passengers and heavy trucks are still the main force of commercial vehicle growth. They judge that the bus will have a growth rate of around 25% throughout the year, and heavy trucks will have a growth rate of around 20%.
According to the analysis, commercial vehicles will first face the changes in the macroeconomic environment this year, implementing tight monetary policies, and commercial vehicles as a means of production will inevitably be affected.
The second is the increase in steel prices across all industries. Commercial vehicles, especially medium-sized goods vehicles and light passenger vehicles, will be affected more. The cost of commercial vehicle bicycles will increase by about 1,500 to 3,500 yuan. How to avoid market share reduction at the same time as appropriate price increases, It puts a new test on commercial vehicle companies.
Once again, Xinhuaxin analysts pointed out that the export of commercial vehicle companies has increased rapidly in recent years, but the appreciation of the renminbi is a great challenge to them, and the original high profits of exports will be lost.
Finally, it is worth noting that the national III emission standard for commercial vehicles will be implemented on July 1 this year. In the first half of this year, commercial vehicle companies will be mainly responsible for cleaning up inventory. As the national III products will generally increase in price, a large number of customers will consume in advance. In the second half of the year, the overall sales volume of commercial vehicles will drop sharply. It remains to be seen how the market outlook will be.
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