For the heavy truck industry, after experiencing the bleakness of the past two years, good news finally came. Recently, the local government has launched a large investment competition and the investment plan has reached trillions of dollars. For example, Guizhou plans to invest 3 trillion yuan, Chongqing and Tianjin plan to invest 1.5 trillion yuan, Fujian plans to invest 1.4 trillion yuan, and Guangdong and Hubei also have 1 trillion investment plans. According to incomplete statistics, the total planned investment in 13 provinces and cities has reached 12.8 trillion yuan, and the average investment in each province and city is about 1 trillion yuan, including infrastructure investment in railways, highways, bridges, and so on. Guangdong proposed to expand Baiyun Airport, build 7 subways, speed up the construction of Guangzhou-Guangzhou and Nanguang-Guangzhou railways, etc. Hubei’s 1.1 trillion yuan is mainly invested in infrastructure construction along the Yangtze River in the Hubei Economic Belt. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, Hubei Yangtze River The river basin will add another 13 bridges across the river. The investment period lasts up to the next decade.
This is undoubtedly a very encouraging news for the dismal heavy truck market. The correlation between the heavy truck industry and China’s infrastructure investment has reached almost 100%. Once the investment is implemented, the heavy truck market will surely rise up. Not only will the effect be immediate, but the ongoing investment may also bring a significant impact to the heavy truck market in the next few years. The motivation.
But in addition to excitement, we must also see that the fundamental issues of the heavy truck industry have not been resolved. Not only that, but also alert the heavy-duty industry to absorb the spirit of “opium†brought by investment.
The last round of investment booms has achieved a record high of over one million vehicles in the heavy truck industry. Driven by the 4 trillion investment after the financial crisis, some companies fell into desperate pursuit of the upper volume and desperately expanded. There are also many foreign companies entering the heavy truck industry in every possible way, causing a dramatic increase in production capacity. However, precisely because of the country's tightening of investment, the heavy truck market demand has shrunk dramatically in the past two years, and the inventory backlog of the previous year has even affected the market today. This is the result of the complete dependence of the heavy truck industry on infrastructure investment.
This spiritual "opium" may be broken at any time. This round of local government investment plan amount pales in comparison with local fiscal revenue. The current total planned investment has accounted for a quarter of the total GDP of China last year, which is more than 2.5 trillion yuan more than the total amount of fiscal revenue last year. The minimum amount of planned investment is Kaifeng’s only RMB 100 billion, but it is approximately equal to its GDP last year, and it is 20 times of last year’s fiscal revenue. In the coming years, it will be unknown whether external investment will be fully available, and whether these funds will bring about the continued prosperity of the heavy truck market will also be very variable.
In this regard, heavy truck companies cannot be blindly optimistic. It is better to rely on external forces than on internal efforts. For a long time, China's heavy-duty truck industry is facing fundamental problems such as poor technology, production process, disorderly competition, and lack of follow-up development. The pull of investment on the market is a temporary solution. This time, with the help of new investments, heavy truck companies must clench their teeth, self-reliance, and gradually resolve fundamental contradictions. Is it a blessing or a curse? How to look at the new round of investment fever is worthy of caution and reflection in the heavy truck industry.
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