After a 45-year decline in 2011 and a 30-year decline in 2013, new LED investment will increase in 2014 as LEDs overcome overcapacity problems. It is expected that LED wafer manufacturing investment will increase by 17 to nearly US$1.2 billion in 2014, SEMI said. .
Equipment investment also revealed that the LED industry has entered a new era, because the current equipment investment is concentrated in industry leaders and aspiring survivors rather than scattered in new companies or new technologies.
LED TVs and semiconductor lighting have driven the LED market. In the past three years, the global capacity of the LED industry has expanded significantly, partly because of the Chinese government subsidies. In 2011, global production capacity increased by 49, and in 2012 it increased by 39. This year continues to grow. 19. Driven by national and local subsidies and stimulus projects, Chinese LED manufacturers will increase their 4-inch wafers this year from 100,000 pieces per month in 2010 to monthly. 620,000 pieces.
These capacity expansions were affected by the extremely optimistic forecast that the LED market will increase to more than $20 billion in 2015 in 2010-2011. However, the current forecast for the packaged LED market in 2015 is only $15 billion, and the compound annual growth rate is lower than 5. The reason for the decline is that the LED light efficiency is improved, the LED light efficiency of the package is improved, and the LED replacement lamp market is small.
The average chip per thousand lumens has fallen from $13 in 2011 to $3.65. The number of LEDs used in television has been reduced by a third, and many SSL fixtures require half the number of LEDs compared to a few years ago. LEDs for mobile devices and laptops are also decreasing. The car is still the growth line market, but currently only accounts for 10.
Due to the increase in production capacity and the decline in the growth rate of new companies, the price of packaged LEDs has fallen sharply in recent years, causing many companies to face serious economic difficulties, especially for new companies and those producing low-margin small and medium-sized power products. Global wafer manufacturing is declining, especially in China. Sales of MOCVD systems have fallen sharply, with leading companies such as Veken and Ai Siqiang increasing their sales by three times in 2010, but sales in 2012 fell in the same way as in 2010.
The drop in the price of sapphire wafers offsets the decline in the price of some packaged LEDs, with more than 80 sapphire used in the LED industry. The price of sapphire 4-inch wafers is now around $32 ($130 in 2011), while the price of 6-inch wafers is less than $300 ($450 18 months ago). The 2-inch and 4-inch patterned substrates (PSS) quickly became the standard, and the 6-inch product will also become the standard.
The decline in sapphire prices and the competition for silicon carbide have led to the suppression of the penetration of silicon-based GaN LEDs. The LuxResearch report shows that SiC and sapphire will continue to dominate the LED market thanks to capacity improvements and technological improvements. New technologies such as hydride vapor phase deposition (HVPE) will further improve output and cut costs, making sapphire highly competitive over the next 10 years.
SEMI said that leading manufacturers have invested in 6-inch wafer production systems and related equipment to increase yield and output. Cree (silicon carbide) and Philips and Osram (sapphire) have begun to enter 6-inch wafers.
Nichia has continued to invest in increased production capacity and technological improvements. Taiwan wafers, Yuyuan and New Century Optoelectronics have significantly increased their production inputs this year. Nearly all leading manufacturers are updating their production systems, including investments in metering, automation, etching and lithography.
MOCVD purchases without government subsidies in China will also increase in 2014. SEMI expects MOCVD purchases to increase by 50 in 2014 and 150 in 2013. At the same time, many of China's LED manufacturing plants will be closed or acquired.
China's Sanan has more than 120 MOCVD and Dehao Runda has 90 units. Their utilization rate is increasing and they are gradually becoming new forces. Some medium-sized LED manufacturers such as Shengyang Optoelectronics and Huacan Optoelectronics are close to full-load production, and the future is very optimistic. In 2014, China will account for 44% of total equipment investment, an increase of 33% over 2013.
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